The Check Is In The Mail
So we are still in planning to plan mode. The markets remain calm in spite of the fact that any plan was delayed again, and it is perfectly clear no one in power in the EU had attempted to work out a single detail of any plan until last week. There is so much to […]
The Average Hans
I have no idea what the equivalent of “Joe Six-Pack” is in Germany, but I can’t believe they are going to be happier tomorrow. Most Germans were not happy about bailing out Greece and the other countries that got themselves into debt trouble. The poll numbers show strong support against it and Merkel has been […]
Plan A Summit And Plan B Summit?
The market is rallying on a new summit and a new joint statement. Read the statement closely. If Plan A was going to work, wouldn’t that be done this weekend? If you were moving to Plan B wouldn’t you want that closer to the leader meeting? Ministers of finance may be able to make positive […]
More Summit Headlines, More Rallies On The Same Story
Summit going ahead as planned (we already bought the plane tickets and the rooms are booked, and I told the spouse they could come). Follow up summit would be before next weekend (ummmm, the Summit may last a day or two longer than planned, unless we can figure out some other cool location to host […]
Prudence Versus Reckless Abandon
As much as the current round of negotiations are being framed as “France vs Germany” there is more to the story than that. The battle is forming up along the lines of those who are trying to show some restraint and prudence and are willing to deal with the consequences of that decision against those […]
The EU Bans Reporting Of Any Bond Trade Below Par
Now the Europe finally “gets it” they have banned naked CDS buying, they are banning ratings, and have decided the market would trade a lot better if all those pesky below par bond trades went away. You can still trade below par it just can’t be reported. As mentioned at least a month ago – […]
The Morning After…
Sovereign CDS is tighter and SOVX is a lot tighter. I’m not sure by exactly how much as that products is heading the way of EDS’s (equity default swaps) and binary bonds (100% payout after a Credit Event) or TRS on high yield bond indices. Sov CDS will not look like other interventions. Those typically […]
(NYT) France Defends Its Credit Rating After Moody’s Warning
Yes, blame it on speculators and ignore the risks of backstopping billions of weak debt on a leveraged basis. They really don’t get it… Not at all. On the other hand, they did point out that in the dictionary A is above AAA so it should be the same with ratings 🙂 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/19/business/global/france-defends-its-credit-rating-after-moodys-warning.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
What To Expect Out Of Europe…
I expect we will see a “grand plan” soon. It will have a massive headline number. It will have all sorts of bells and whistles. It will have caveats. The headline program will sound huge. The fact that most of it is self-referencing, writing insurance on yourself, etc., won’t even be important. It will be […]
The Downside Of “Deferred Comp”
GS had a bad quarter, but still accrued some decent compensation costs. This from the one firm on the street that is not only willing to pay ZERO bonuses to those who “earned” it, but who could still retain talent. So why the big compensation accrual? A part is salaries. Salaries have increased, so all […]