S&P Statement On EFSF – Oct 28th

Posted by on Dec 6, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sp-issues-statement-efsf-says-almost-certain-european-governments-would-support-cdo That is the statement from S&P from October 28th.  They made it clear that EFSF depends on the ratings of the countries.  Guess they forgot that when they sent out the release last night. Is EIB at risk?  They have a very different structure than EFSF but not sure they would be immune from the downgrades.  EIB […]

The Show Must Go On

Posted by on Dec 6, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

It looked like S&P had gone off script. They slapped a negative watch on any euro country that didn’t have it already. They even came out with details about which countries faced 1 notch and which faced 2 notches. I’m glad I didn’t have this information on Friday as I wouldn’t have bet we would […]

What The TF!

Posted by on Dec 5, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

S&P AAA SDR IMF ECB Fed CDS   The fact that the global financial system hinges on these 7 sets of 3 letters is appalling and amazing. If GS is the best and brightest the rating agencies are close to the opposite, yet somehow regulators let them set a ceiling on bank capital and now […]

There Must Be Some Great Phone Calls Going On Right Now!

Posted by on Dec 5, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

With the “negative watch” rumor now leaked there have to be a lot of ugly phone calls occurring right now! How it leaked is interesting enough but the Merkozy must be going ballistic right now as I can’t see how this helps them no matter the outcome of this week’s decisions. Will they really go […]

All The World’s A Stage

Posted by on Dec 5, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

I can’t help but feel that we are watching a performance this week. It feels like the actions, the meetings, and the statements are all very scripted. It seems reasonably clear which ending they are going for, but many of their actions also fit the “alternative” ending so it remains imperative to be cautious. Roles […]

Mortgage QE?

Posted by on Dec 2, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

There has been more and more speculation that the Fed is getting ready to launch a new QE program, this one targeting residential mortgages. With the data coming in better than expected, stocks back up, and Plosser and Bullard both chiming in that improving data would make them hesitate or question the need for more […]

Greece – Has The Barber Retired?

Posted by on Dec 2, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

There is a Bloomberg story out there stating that the debt negotiations are “complex”. We never believed that the PSI “haircut” was going to get done as a voluntary negotiation.  The IIF didn’t have the authority, and having the country take over negotiations has made it even less likely that any haircuts occur without a […]

(ZH) The Hill Just Killed The Market…

Posted by on Dec 2, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-stumbles-conservatives-push-end-imf-bailout I can’t say that I disagree with the bill, but partisan politics is definitely trying to get in the way of what Bernanke tried to get going earlier this week. There have to be a few Europeans pretty mad at us after all our fingerpointing and telling them what they need to do and how easy […]

(SYH) [CPDO] Scheme ‘Grotesquely Complicated’

Posted by on Dec 2, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

I have to admit that I had missed the trial in Sydney. I wasn’t aware that it was going on, but do intend to catch up on it. CPDO was quite possibly the worst of all the products. The more leverage, the better the rating. It has been a personal favorite of mine that this […]

Tomorrow, And Tomorrow, And Tomorrow

Posted by on Dec 2, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

As Macbeth said, It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury signifying nothing. Fading the “Grand Plan” rally worked very well. There was a couple days of pain and then generally the market followed a nice path lower. Last week the market had felt oversold and was looking for a […]