How Real Is The Rally In Corporate Credit?
IG17, the CDX index has been very strong, though it has stabilized at these levels for the past couple of days. The “basis” has become very rich. The index is trading more than 7 bps tighter than the fair value. This is a clear sign that the market has been squeezed and that hedges are coming off but the rally […]
Act II Begins
The intermission is over and now we get to the heart of the matter. ECB We will get some actual information this morning. The ECB will cut rates, 25 bps at a minimum and possibly 50 bps. That isn’t news and is priced in. Any pop on a 25 bp cut is likely to be […]
IMF
I do not believe that the IMF can create a new plan above its existing unallocated money without new commitments from its members. The EU is effectively out. The US will struggle to approve anything. China, Russia, and Brazil are not necessarily in position to increase their commitments as they all have domestic problems. Japan […]
(BN) Merkel, Sarkozy Propose Tighter Budget Rules in EU
“Reaffirm their inflexible determination to honor fully their own individual sovereign signature” Something seems to have been lost in translation, or the market is about to be disappointed. +——————————————————————————+ Merkel, Sarkozy Propose Tighter Budget Rules in EU Overhaul 2011-12-07 14:18:39.873 GMT By Gregory Viscusi Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) — French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor […]
(BN) ECB Said to Consider Extra Measures to Stimulate Bank Lending
Disappointing. Yes we will get a 50 bp rate cut tomorrow, but this is NOT what the market was looking for. Also, how does this really help lending to anything other than sovereigns and other banks (if it even does that). Remember way back when we all used to complain about how Japan was creating […]
Europe Doesn’t Get It
I still think the most likely scenario is that some agreement to agree is made at the summit, which is then followed up by increased printing from the ECB, coupled with new Fed policies and fresh IMF money. Although that still seems the most likely, I am getting concerned that Europe is once again missing […]
No Private Losses And EFSF * 2
I would like to start mine, mine, mine, buy ’em, take em, mine, mine, mine, lift the offer, mine, mine, and get me some more desk at a bank. If I understand the concept correctly, I could buy sovereign debt and be “promised” that it will never default. And if I’m a bank, I can […]
The End Of Act I
So Act I has played out and to be honest, has left the audience feeling a bit underwhelmed. While no one expected it to be easy, a couple of additional scenes have not helped the mood. The “squeeze” effect is over. On Friday we really liked the possible squeeze names – those that had been […]
The Fed – Independence, Yes, But Accountability And Limits
At this point it is clear that there is no single person in America, and possibly the planet who can influence markets as much as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. The president may have more overall power (possibly) but in terms of moving markets for weeks at a time, that power primarily belongs […]
So Why Did They Forget To Put EFSF On Watch Yesterday?
My guess is that EFSF is rated by the structured credit group and not the sovereign debt group (imagine the fights over fees on that potential behemoth). So when the press leaked the downgrades, the sovereign group rushed to get the details out, but the structured people in Europe had already gone home, so couldn’t […]