Holidays In The Sun…
Somehow the anger of the sex pistols, the sound of boots marching in the background, seem right to me today. Greek Industrial Production dropped 11.3% in December. The unemployment rate jumped to 20.9%, up from 18.2%. The charade of negotiations and a bailout can go. Some deal is likely to be announced. I’m not even […]
Monkey See, Monkey Do
Irish Finance Minister saying that whatever the ECB does with Greece would be of interest to Ireland. So if ECB forgives Greek debt (directly or through EFSF), Ireland is going to want the same deal. Portugal won’t be far behind. And why stop at ECB and not go for PSI as well? They continue to […]
Do The Credit Markets Know Something Stocks Don’t?
Commerzbank, the shares are up, but senior CDS is 25 wider and sub CDS is 30 wider. The SNR financials index is 10 wider (sub is only 9 wider). Euro is weak, but more or less in line with stocks. It is the weakness in indices and financials that is most noticeable. It is possible […]
That Is Some Serious Fracking Volatility
Natural Gas may well be the story of the year. The volatility has spiked to levels never seen before. The daily swings are large. UNG, the ETF is almost comical to watch. 5% moves are pretty standard. Not only does it have the volatility of the underlying commodity, it has to deal with rolling futures […]
The ECB’s Scary Carry Trade
According to the WSJ, the “ECB is willing to forego profits on their Greek bonds”. That statement strikes me as one of the scariest things that a central banker could say (and there is some tough competition for that one). Forego profits? Here is the chart of a typical Greek bond over the past 2 […]
It’s Raining Ben…
Of all the songs to get stuck in my head, that’s a painful one, but it sums up the market as well as anything else today. Ben remained as dovish as any bull could hope for. He spent more time downplaying the jobs data than I did. It is clear that he likes getting up […]
(BN) Greece Working on Final Draft for Leaders Meeting, Official Says
So, what are the steps here? Approve it. Handholding press conference. Lots of “defining moment” and “mission accomplished” speeches. Then what? Rumors that 20 billion or more of bonds won’t agree to the PSI (that is only 10%). Rioting in the streets? (those ungrateful people just don’t understand the need to sacrifice themselves for the […]
(BN) Greek PM Papademos Requests Default Report, Pasok Spokesman Says
So bonds having been trading below 50 percent of par and they have been negotiating for huge amounts of bailout money even longer and not once have they done a study of what default would mean? No actual work on what leaving the euro would do? The scary and sad thing is that I believe […]
JPM Buys Greece For $2
While we wait for the antics in Greece to result in some announcement, I can’t help but think about how different the Greek situation is from when JPM bought Bear Stearns (shortly after the last time the Giants won the super bowl). The “weekend” deadline for Bear was neither artificial, nor self-imposed. Without a deal, […]
Okay, So It Was Probably More Than Just The Weather…
But, SPX can’t even pick up a full 1% on it? Just how long is everyone? Ben must be scratching his head? How can he do his favourite thing (printing money and buying bonds from banks) when the data isn’t helping his cause and more and more people question whether ZIRP is beneficial to the […]