Hearing That The ECB Swap Is Done…

Posted by on Feb 17, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

There is supposedly a headline out there that the ECB swap is done.  That is not surprising.  All they are doing is taking existing bonds, and changing them so they have new cusips and documentation that explicitly states they cannot be “retroactively” CAC’d.  This isn’t part of PSI or anything exciting.  It is a legal […]

Do They Or Don’t They? Will They Or Won’t They?

Posted by on Feb 17, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

It’s hard to believe that here we are again trying to figure out what Europe will do over the weekend.  In our case a long weekend. In spite of the fact that the Greek story has been out there for almost 2 years now, it still drives the market.  Virtually all of the big moves […]

Is The ECB Debt Swap A Step Towards Greek Default?

Posted by on Feb 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Firstly this debt exchange story is still that, just a story, and just doesn’t read right. It feels like either the reporter didn’t understand the source, or the source had some key detail wrong, but let’s pretend it’s true. Well, early this week I tried to put some ideas down on what Greece should be […]

Reports Are Either Wrong Or This Is A Bad Deal For Greece

Posted by on Feb 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

If the ECB switches 50 billion of old bonds for 50 billion of new bonds, what does Greece get?  No notional reduction. Possibly a reduction in interest payments but that depends on the coupons on the bonds the ECB owns. The new bonds allegedly have some covenants and possibly other projections for the bond holders. […]

*ECB TO DISTRIBUTE PROFIT FROM SWAP TO GOVERNMENTS, WELT SAY

Posted by on Feb 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

*ECB TO DISTRIBUTE PROFIT FROM SWAP TO GOVERNMENTS, WELT SAYS   Either someone has had too much schnapps or the ECB should start charging 2 and 20 because who else can buy bonds at 80, ride them down to 25 and claim they made a profit.   +——————————————————————————+   BFW 02/16 16:37 ECB Swapping Greek […]

*WELT: ECB SWAPPING EST. EU50 BLN GREEK BONDS AT NOMINAL VALUE

Posted by on Feb 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

*WELT: ECB SWAPPING EST. EU50 BLN GREEK BONDS AT NOMINAL VALUE   What do they mean by “nominal value”?  Are they getting out without haircut to make it easier to default on old bonds that don’t play nice?   At least Draghi doing something. He has power and seems to get it – maybe he […]

(BN) *GREEK DEBT SEEN BY TROIKA AT 129% OF GDP BY 2020

Posted by on Feb 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

They couldn’t predict January budget shortfall within a billion, but yeah, they’ve got it all figured out until 2020.  The market seems to be rallying on headlines that Europe is back to progressing on the bailout and some decent economic news.  They haven’t prepared for default, so they aren’t about to announce it yet, but […]

(BFW) German MOF: Bridge Loan For Greece Off The Table: Dow Jones

Posted by on Feb 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

I’m not sure it was ever on the table, but who knows.  With all the headlines it is time to redo my line-up card of European headline makers.  I would hate to buy stocks on the back of a headline from the Greek minister of agriculture (he did spook the markets last year with a […]

(BN) *DE JAGER PREFERS TO KEEP GREECE IN EURO ZONE IF ORDERLY DEFAULT

Posted by on Feb 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Finally!   An “orderly” default and remaining in Eurozone.  Why didn’t they think of this before?   +——————————————————————————+    BN 02/16 14:59 *DUTCH FINANCE MINISTER DE JAGER DISCUSSES GREECE IN PARLIAMENT  BN 02/16 14:58 *DE JAGER PREFERS TO KEEP GREECE IN EURO ZONE IF ORDERLY DEFAULT  BN 02/16 14:55 *DE JAGER: ORDERLY DEFAULT SCENARIO ALSO […]

MS vs JEF

Posted by on Feb 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

If Moody’s follows through with their threat of downgrading Morgan Stanley to BBB, they will have the same rating as Jefferies.  That rating is tough for a bank with a big balance sheet to carry.  People got concerned about JEF and they had a small balance sheet, were able to take it down quickly, and […]