G-20, PSI, PMI And LTRO
The G-20 has come and gone. Nothing particularly positive happened, but since the market prefers to go higher on rumors of China throwing money at Europe, it keeps that option open. The G-20 and IMF seem to want the bankrupt countries of Europe help themselves more before they will provide them with lots of new […]
The ECB’s Bailout Of The ECB
We finally saw the PSI details – the press release itself was confusing about how Greece will proceed once the participation rate is known, but nothing about the terms were new. In the meantime a lot of “new” bonds have been created. These must be the bonds that the ECB owns. The amount the ECB […]
Bullard, Plosser, And Dudley Seem To Be Talking Down The Prospects For More QE
Not that Bullard and Plosser are currently voting members, but it is interesting to see if the Fed is toning it down a bit. I believe that the closer we get to election time, the more difficult it will be for them to implement a new program without significant deterioration in the data. For a […]
Greece Ministry Of Press Releases Decimated By Budget Cuts
It has been over an hour since the press release came out, and I think the only thing that is mostly clear is that if 75% don’t agree, the deal is dead in the water. The press release, which tries to clarify things, only made it less clear to me. ZeroHedge had a nice flowchart […]
PSI – Accrued Interest…
I have to admit, I’m a bit confused by their plans. Below 75% and no deal, so hard default? Between 75% and 90% they consult with Troika what to do? Above 90 they proceed with proposed amendments put in effect – so it seems above 90 they do CAC. Between 75 and 90 they have […]
I still like higher EUR/USD…(from Douglas Borthwick)
This is from Douglas Borthwick of Faros Trading. He has been bullish for awhile and correct. He remains bullish, but while everyone else is scrambling to revise their projections higher (as he predicted) he is sounding a bit cautionary. Maybe it is the fact that he has been correct, or that he isn’t busy getting […]
What A Complicated Web We Weave…
So the ECB’s “exchange” is starting to show up. The notionals aren’t in yet, but you can see which issues the ECB owns based on the new bonds that have been created. They seem to have been less involved in the English law bonds, but it is just as likely that it hasn’t hit the […]
Daily Credit ETF and Index Summary (12.02.23): Bond Liquidity – Blessing or Curse?
The two HY ETF’s I have focused on, have added over $5 billion in assets this year alone. That pace has slowed, in the past week, but these inflows have garnered a great deal of attention. It is now a topic de jour at real high yield bond trading desks and not just at the […]
(BN) Bank Lobby Widened Volcker Rule Before Inciting Foreign Outrage
A good report on the Volcker rule and the Dodd/Frank lobby as a whole. I like the idea of lobbying to make it more inclusive, so that more people would join the lobby to fight it. I still have not heard a good explanation why it has taken so long to make what little progress […]
(BN) Venizelos Says Unconcerned About Whether CDS on Greece Triggered
So in spite of earlier best efforts they finally realized the debt problem is so big that avoiding the CDS Credit Event limited their options on debt restructuring. Why the PSI terms aren’t more harsh and weren’t done in December before the last 8 billion transfer where Greece paid private creditors and took on more […]