(BFW) ISDA Determinations Committee Accepts Greece Question

Posted by on Feb 28, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

So it looks like they will try to determine if the events so far have been a Credit Event.  I personally don’t think it is there.  Too much relies more on “language” subordination and offering the PSI.  It has a shot of winning, but I suspect it won’t be called a Credit Event at this […]

Gold And LTRO

Posted by on Feb 28, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Late last summer and early fall, I remember that gold couldn’t lose.  No matter what happened in Europe, gold would do well. Either European QE was coming and gold would go up, or Europe would fall apart and gold would go up.  It didn’t. More and more, I’m hearing similar stories about LTRO specifically, and the market in general.  […]

So Greece “Defaults” And Europe Moves On…

Posted by on Feb 28, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

So far there are no dramatic consequences of the Greek default.  The ECB did say they couldn’t accept it as collateral, but national central banks (including Greece’s somehow solvent NCB) can, so no real change.  We will likely get a Credit Event prior to March 20th once CAC’s are used to get the deal fully […]

Consequences Of The “SD” Rating For Greece By S&P

Posted by on Feb 27, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Probably none. In a normal world, the ECB wouldn’t finance positions for banks that were rated D or SD.  But since the ECB is behind the whole deal and is doing everything for banks, any actual rule prohibiting that will be amended immediately if it hasn’t already been (there was a time the ECB would […]

The PPT Must Have Thought We Had Moved To Daylight Savings

Posted by on Feb 27, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Time and left at 3pm after trying to ramp it up then.  Weird day.  The morning drop seemed overdone based on “fears” of a German vote against the ECB/Bank bailout using Greece as a conduit for the money.  The vote was strongly in favor which made markets happy, though someday maybe someone will present an […]

FT Alphaville: ISDA Greece Credit Event Around Here?

Posted by on Feb 27, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Personally I don’t think it will be a Credit Event at this stage. They have tried to make the new ECB bonds as similar as possible to the old bonds.  Is not being subjected to a law the same as being made senior? I think it is worth a shot, but not sure it wins. […]

(BN) *MERKEL SAYS GERMANY MAY PAY EU11 BLN INTO ESM THIS YEAR

Posted by on Feb 27, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

In another day where the market sold off briefly on concerns about Greece, but has now gone back to rallying (at least until the European close), this little line deserves more attention. For all the hype about ESM having “paid-in” capital – it doesn’t.  It has more than EFSF (which is at zero), but still […]

Less Than 10 Billion Euro Of March 20th Bonds Oustanding?

Posted by on Feb 27, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Under the “designated” securities section of the Greek PSI offer, the principal amount outstanding is 9.77 billion.  With 14.4 billion allegedly outstanding, that means the ECB owned 4.7 billion of these bonds.  The ECB intends to get paid at par on these?  With these bonds trading at about 25%, that is 3.5 billion euro of […]

Greek PSI Update

Posted by on Feb 27, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

So far, the PSI has become more confusing, rather than less confusing.  The official Greek PSI website now requires a variety of “confirmations” to proceed to the “invitations”.  So while waiting for the lawyers to figure out how to “check the boxes” it is actually harder to get information from the government on what is […]

The Placebo Effect

Posted by on Feb 27, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

The “Placebo Effect” is fascinating.  In a typical drug testing trial, one group of patients will receive the actual drug being tested, and a “control” group will be given an “inert” medicine (or “sugar pill”) that shouldn’t do anything for the patient, but the patient doesn’t know that. So much of what I find wrong […]