(AP) Greece: High Participation In Bond Swap

Posted by on Mar 9, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

So  86% participation in Greek bond laws.  Plans to use CAC on Greek law bonds.  Unclear if already using the CAC or not. ISDA meeting later.  Won’t be a Credit Event until CAC is used. English law bond deadline extended. +——————————————————————————+   Greece: High Participation in Bond Swap 2012-03-09 06:25:50.198 GMT Athens, Greece (AP) — […]

The Law Of Large Numbers And EU Insanity

Posted by on Mar 8, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Rumors that PSI is above 90 % and that Greece won’t use CAC.  With 207 billion Euro out of affected debt, even 10% is almost 21 billion. The PSI package seems worth somewhere between 20 and 25 cents on the dollar. So paying these holdouts at par  as they come due, costs Greece about 1.5 […]

(BN) Papademos Says Expects Maximum Participation in Greek Debt Swap

Posted by on Mar 8, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

I’m not sure why 100% isn’t maximum possible, but math and Greek politicians don’t seem to go well together. I expect a number between 75% and 98%. I expect every bank and most regulated entities to vote for it – how many Greek bonds are held by Europe’s bad banks and bailed out banks? My […]

ECB: 8 March 2012 – Eligibility Of Bonds Issued Or Guarantee

Posted by on Mar 8, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

ECB: 8 March 2012 – Eligibility of bonds issued or guaranteed by the greek government in Eurosystem credit operations   Ok, I read the English press release and am left wishing they had it in Italian or something because it would make as much sense.  All I can guess is this is a way around […]

Main And IG17 Not Doing As Well As Equities…

Posted by on Mar 8, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Main was 4 tighter at one point but is only 1 3/4 tighter now. IG17 is only 1 tighter – which seems light given where futures are. HY17 is doing better, the slippage in these indices may be a sign that stocks are over enthusiastic again. I think we will see lower levels than now […]

Manic Depressive Markets Are Back

Posted by on Mar 8, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

What a difference 24 hours makes, or 48 for that matter.  After an almost 2% decline on Tuesday on virtually no news, the market looks set to get all that back and more – all since about 10:30 yesterday – also on no real news. PSI results continue to come in. It looks like it […]

Ultimate Carry Trades – AIG, MF Global, And LTRO

Posted by on Mar 7, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

We know how AIG and MF ended, as of yet we don’t know how LTRO will end. AIG was the ultimate carry trade. They sold massive amounts of CDS for a very small spread. They had no funding cost, no collateral requirements (initially), and no mark to market risk for their own P&L.  The year […]

Markets Rallying On QE And PSI

Posted by on Mar 7, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Looks like straight QE may be off the table, but the Fed is working on other ways to pump money into longer dated bonds and mortgages. For now market is positive. This is weak compared to real QE though purchases of mortgages would be more interesting as tries to more directly to help the housing […]

Watch HYG And Spanish Bonds

Posted by on Mar 7, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

After an aggressive beating yesterday, HYG looked ready for a dead cat bounce at the very least.  It popped on the open but is grinding back towards unchanged. To the extent that retail is done chasing yield for now, that is worrisome. To the extent it is institutions playing in HYG it is a sign […]

LTRO – Scratching The Surface

Posted by on Mar 7, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Now that the hype of LTRO is over (for now) people are starting to focus on the details and some of the potential consequences.  This is a first cut based on bits and pieces from various LTRO documents released by the ECB.  I haven’t seen anything that resembles a document fully describing the current LTRO’s, […]