Slow Start To The Week As Market Digests Jobs, New Data
Weaker than expected trade data from China got the markets off to a slow start. Europe has been trying to bounce them up since then without much luck. The jobs data came in strong, but there seem to be enough questions about the quality of jobs, weather impact, and what had already been priced in, […]
CDS As Insurance Contracts?
This Washington Post article about CDS being an insurance product <http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/credit-default-swaps-are-insurance-products-its-time-we-regulated-them-as-such/2012/03/05/gIQAAUo83R_story.html> one very useful point was brought out. At the same time, there seems to be flaw in the argument and much of the argument is misdirected. Typically, an option or futures contract expires, and it either is in or out of the money. Any […]
(BN) Gilmore Says Anglo Irish Talks Ongoing; Accord Would Aid ‘Mood’
Just background noise, but more evidence of bail-out regret and failure. +——————————————————————————+ Gilmore Says Anglo Irish Talks Ongoing; Accord Would Aid ‘Mood’ 2012-03-11 13:26:21.986 GMT By Dara Doyle March 11 (Bloomberg) — Ireland’s Foreign Minister Eamon Gilmore said talks are ongoing on reducing the cost of the promissory notes used to rescue […]
Net, Gross, Or GROSS
The magician has everyone talking about CDS. Having a Credit Event is a big deal, but I think the process will be manageable – just like Lehman CDS. I think the Net notional is all that really matters. What matters most is the GROSS notional of bonds. That is the big number as it is […]
What Next For CDS?
It looks the auction will be accelerated. I don’t think this has much impact as new bonds are trading WI close to old bonds. English law Greek bonds might become cheapest to deliver, but weird that the invitation date was extended past the auction date. I think CDS settlement will be smooth. What will be […]
ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred With Respect To Greece
ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred With Respect to Greece So we finally have the Credit Event. +——————————————————————————+ BN 03/09 19:45 ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred With Respect to Greece BFW 03/09 19:44 ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred With Respect to Greece BN 03/09 19:44 *ISDA SAYS CREDIT EVENT HAS OCCURRED […]
ISDA and CACs
ISDA seems to be having trouble confirming if CACs have been used or are still just a plan to be used. Until the CAC is used to “force” bond holders into the new deal there is no Credit Event. The headlines are a bit misleading on what has been executed or not. All kind of […]
Greek PSI Participation Rate Spin…
I’m already sick of the spin. The only number that matters is 100%. They didn’t get it. They will CAC (in fact they may already have done it). CDS will be triggered. This is the biggest sovereign default ever. Those who agreed either had no choice – banks and regulated entities – or saw no […]
NFP – What’s The “Whisper” Number?
Great weather and the seasonal adjustments should boost what could already be a decent number. There have been some indications that hiring has slowed down from January, but with this being a February number it might not reflect that. The market really feels like it has bet on a big number, so it may take […]
Greek Creditors Don’t Get The Courtesy Of A Reach-Around
Only in Greece, can you wipe out €100 billion of debt, and have the new debt that replaces it trade at 20% of face value. So 85.8% of Greek law bonds “participated”. The government intends to use the Collective Action Clause to force the holdouts to participate. It is unclear if the government has actually […]