(BN) State-Backed Spanish Bank Securities Deposited at ECB (Table)

Posted by on Mar 15, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

State-backed bank securities seems much better than Ponzi, but I prefer Ponzi. Why did the cost to recap Greek banks shoot up in the past 6 months? The cost of the greek bank recap is one of the big reasons the bailout money required has gone up, it is estimated that the amount of new […]

What Do $100 Billion Of Ponzi Bonds Mean?

Posted by on Mar 15, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

So Italian banks have issued about $100 billion of these Ponzi bonds and even in this day, that is a big number. Banks issue bonds to themselves. Then they get an Italian government guarantee. Then they take those bonds to the ECB and get money, which I assume they use to pay down other debt […]

Investment Grade Bonds And The Retail Love Affair

Posted by on Mar 15, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Without a doubt, retail has fallen in love with corporate bonds.  Fund flows were originally into mutual funds, and have shifted more and more into the ETF’s.  The ETF’s are gaining a greater institutional following as well – their daily trading volumes cannot be ignored, and for the high yield space, many hedgers believe it […]

Fed Disappoints But JPM Buyback And Everyone

Posted by on Mar 13, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

passing the stress test have caused another big spike. Definitely a positive signal out of JPM but as the best of the banks, will the others keep up?  Group still trades like it is under-owned – today being no exception. And just yesterday everyone was worried about real estate and declining trading volumes. Definitely positive […]

No Real Promise Of QE, But They Are Clearly Trying

Posted by on Mar 13, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

To keep the idea on the table. A brief mention of inflation – but this time it will decrease as oil and gas are temporary (or transitory). Not as hawkish as it could have been, and they do seem to insert enough negatives to keep QE on the table. Whether QE is still on the […]

A Complex Simplification of the CDS Market

Posted by on Mar 13, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

CDS is once again (still) in the spotlight.  We have moved on from debating whether or not a Credit Event has occurred in the Hellenic Republic, to concerns about whether the CDS market will settle without a problem.  There is a lot of talk about “net” and “gross” notionals and counterparty risk. What I will […]

We Will Hit 84 Degrees In NYC Today, Seasonally Adjusted

Posted by on Mar 13, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

There has been a lot of talk lately about “seasonal adjustments” and what they actually mean and do for the data. Reporting today’s forecast in “seasonally adjusted” terms would not be incorrect.  The temperature today is almost 30 degrees higher than the average March temperature in NYC, so reporting it as 30 degrees higher than […]

CDS Disclosure

Posted by on Mar 12, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Stock analysts have to disclose whether they own a stock or not, whether they do invest banking for the company they talk about, etc.   What would be really helpful if everyone who wrote or spoke about CDS could provide some basic disclosure: 1) I, or an employee I was responsible for, actually ever had […]

European Credit Closing Near The Wides Of The Day

Posted by on Mar 12, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Corporate credit was relatively stable, but bonds were lower pretty much across the board. Spanish 10 year yields broke 5% again. CDS underperformed even more, with 5 year Italy almost 15 bps wider. Focus is turning to Spain and Portugal. The question with Portugal is when they will want to get some debt forgiveness of […]

The ECB’s GGB’s

Posted by on Mar 12, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

So the protected classes owned 56 billion of Greek debt.  They allegedly plan on getting paid out at par – though maybe it will be at cost.  They definitely concentrated their portfolio at the front end.  Not only are they due to receive 4.7 billion euro on March 20th, but they are owed 15.9 billion […]