€300 Billion of “Firewall” Money up in Smoke
Last week’s firewall headlines devolved into a “mine is bigger than yours” argument, as official headlines touted the highest possible number, and any reasonable analysis showed that the available money had only increased from €300 billion to €500 billion. Far less than the official headlines and any analysis of how the EU cobbles together €500 […]
From Enron to Sino Forest – Same Old Song
Enron –> Worldcom –> Adelphia –> Lehman –> MF Global –> Greece –> Sino Forest –> ???? I would rank these as some of the more notorious bankruptcies. These weren’t normal course of business bankruptcies. These were dark and deviant. They have many similarities. Opaque and convoluted accounting and finances are common to them all. […]
Bailout Availability goes from €300 billion to €500 billion, kind of, maybe
The EFSF has committed €200 billion. Depending on how you viewed EFSF, the maximum was €440 billion of funding at the AAA level (which it still has from Moody’s and Fitch). It could have been as much as €500 billion if it wasn’t focused on that maximum rating. So how did we get a headline […]
Window Dressing – You may be naked in front of that window
I have heard so much about “quarter end” window dressing, and have to admit I never understood the theory. It sounds like managers who weren’t fully invested in a good quarter are supposed to buy stocks so they can show they were fully invested? Which would you rather send to your clients: Dear investor, we […]
Austerity – Mais, non. Spending – Nein. PSI – Tal Vez?
Austerity hasn’t worked for countries. So far the austerity path has made situations worse, rather than better. Without stimulus, economies have seen their problems compound. So now virtually everyone is against the idea that austerity is helpful. That takes us back to spending. Maybe it’s just me, but spending is what got us into this […]
EU – EFSF & ESM – A whole lot of nothing
A quick look at the headlines: €200 billion already committed. So the EFSF has already committed €200 billion. So far I only see €63 billion of debt issued by the EFSF, so they have at least another €137 billion to fund. The bulk of their issuance so far is back to back with a they […]
Spain, A Slightly Bigger Kick
Yesterday, we took a quick look at Italian bond issuance since October of last year. Today it is Spain’s turn. I think they have actually done a better job. While the weighted average maturity of new Italian debt was only until August 2014, Spanish issuance has had an average weighted maturity of July 2015, almost […]
The T Report: Is Needing EU help a good thing? I really cannot remember.
Markets are up a little this morning, basically getting back the late day fade. S&P Futures up 4. IG18 is ¾ of a bp tighter. In Europe, bonds in Spain and Italy are better after an initial round of weakness. As far as I can tell, they both bounced on rumors that the EU was […]
Italian Debt – Not Kicking the Can Far
Italy has issued €157 billion of debt between November of last year and the end of last week. This is direct Italian government issuance and doesn’t include any of the debt the government has guaranteed in the meantime, which seems to be at least €70 billion more, but hey, who counts guaranteed debt. Of the […]
The T Report: Scratching my head til it bleeds & the 5 classes of Corporate Bonds
The market has rallied more than 2% since the lows on Friday morning. The rally has been almost exclusively central bank and government driven. On Friday the rally started with rumors of ECB bond purchases, it continued Monday morning with Merkel softening her stance on how much Germany is willing to risk, and momentum accelerated […]