TFMkts – Best Ideas Updated and Fixed Income Allocation Change

Posted by on Apr 11, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  Sell HYG. I remain nervous about the market. This trade was a small loss 89.35 vs 89.15, but I am just not comfortable with the market and the issue of it switching to a discount from a premium. Take the “fixed income allocation” back to 15%. Cover 5 year Spain versus 5 year Italy […]

The T-Report: The Danger of HY ETF’s Trading at Discounts to NAV

Posted by on Apr 11, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Alcoa helped the markets bounce back after the close, and some indications that the ECB may start buying bonds again helped the market even more. One company’s earnings don’t make a trend, and I am still concerned that earnings will be mediocre at best. Spanish bonds are already off their highs, and CDS never really […]

TFMkts – Best Ideas – New Trades – Adding Shorts

Posted by on Apr 11, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  Fading this rally: Short IG18 at 102.75. Buy protection on IG18. Short ES (S&P) at 1367.5. Getting back to an aggressive short position. Fading yesterday’s rally worked, and even with the overnight futures move, the Italian CDS trade from yesterday morning is unchanged, and the Nasdaq (QQQ) short is still in the money. Time […]

TFMkts – Best Idea Trade Updates

Posted by on Apr 10, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Cover SPX Short. Buy futures at 1362. Cover IG18 short, sell at 104.25. Still short QQQ, Italy, and Spain. Remain long HYG. Still clinging to hopes that AAPL stops defying gravity. On a “process” note, this e-mail/bloomberg was sent to a list of people who I think want to receive best idea updates. If you […]

What the TF: Fixing Broken CDX Indices – It’s NOT Rocket Science

Posted by on Apr 10, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

While everyone is talking about “broken” indices, let’s look at 5 ways to fix it. Some are very easy, some are more difficult. Exchange Traded Force all the indices on to exchanges with standard collateral provisions. It will be hard to avoid some off-exchange trades, but this would be a big step in terms of […]

TFMkt Best Ideas Update and Summary

Posted by on Apr 10, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Getting very bearish now with several new trades: Short Italy via CDS. Buy Italian CDS at 440. Market seems very fragile, particularly in bonds, but if Spanish 10 year yields can’t hold 6% look for a sell-off across the board. Short IG18 at 102.75. Buy protection on IG18. The market traded well earlier today, but […]

The T-Report: Spain, Italy, & HYG. All driving markets lower

Posted by on Apr 10, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Spain and Italy. Spanish 10 year yields are heading to 6%. They are at 5.94% and without some ECB intervention soon are likely to pierce 6%. I think we are on the cusp of a lot of stop loss orders and with limited liquidity, the move could be fast and painful. We remain with a […]

TF Market Advisors – IG9 Tranches Explained

Posted by on Apr 10, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

There is a lot of talk about IG9 these days. I think the story has a lot more to do with tranches than with outright selling of the index. IG9 10 year is a 125 name, equally weighted CDS index that matures on December 20, 2017. The index has had 4 defaults, Fannie Mae, Freddie […]

Trade Idea – IG9 10yr vs IG18

Posted by on Apr 9, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

We are still in the process of developing a variety of distribution lists. Our apologies to you if your are annoyed to receive an IG9 10yr CDS trade idea. We hope to have the lists better organized by Wednesday. Buy IG9 10yr protection and Sell IG18 protection against it The market has been fixated on […]

Synthetic CDO’s – When Risky Isn’t Risky – Or Free Equity

Posted by on Apr 4, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Synthetic CDO ‘First Loss’ tranche safer than ‘Second Loss’ Tranche In the past few weeks there has been some more noise from regulators and the rumor mill related to synthetic CDO’s.  It hasn’t hit the frenzy surrounding the Abacus deal last year, but the questions are starting to pop up again.  Who was long what?  […]