The T Report: May Fixed Income “Core” Allocation and April Performance Update

Posted by on May 1, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  This is the “core” fixed income allocation. The goal of the “core” portfolio is to provide monthly updates, with some intermittent changes as market conditions warrant. The allocations are intended to provide good income opportunities, with the best risk/reward profile and the ability to take advantage of major market opportunities when they occur. We […]

The T Report: Austerity, Spending & the Black Market in the Room

Posted by on May 1, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  A dull morning with the Euro markets shut down. Stock futures have meandered throughout the overnight session, trading up and down, but in a narrow range. We get the ISM data and vehicles sales today. It would be surprising if ISM didn’t disappoint, which means the market has already priced in a print lower […]

The T Report: Central Banks, Growth, and Waiting for Data

Posted by on Apr 30, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  The Weekly Report pretty much covers the big issue of the week. Will Central Banks and governments do something to help the market? It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they won’t do anything that really helps the economies, but there is hope that they will help the markets. Growth has become the […]

What the TF? Give Austerity a Chance. Spending for Growth Already Failed.

Posted by on Apr 30, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

The markets may decide to play along with the renewed talk of growth and the death of austerity, but it is shocking how quickly writers and the media have latched on to the idea that growth will somehow save us and that the entire problem is the fault of austerity. Although it seems like it […]

The Weekly T Report: BJ and the Bear

Posted by on Apr 28, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  CB’s, CB’s, CB’s, everywhere you look people are writing or talking about central banks. The last time CB’s were this omnipresent in America, BJ and the Bear was on TV, Convoy was the movie, people had cool “handles” and said think like roger that, and 10-4 big buddy. Now it’s twitter “handles”, CYA’s and […]

The T Report: GDP Better Be Good and Redefining “Successful” Auctions

Posted by on Apr 27, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  The market has continued its overnight rebound, at least in part on expectations that GDP will hit 3%. I could see that happening quite easily. There was enough good data at the start of the year that the consensus estimate of 2.5% seems slow. The same group that complains about how Case-Shiller is backwards […]

What the TF? When did Austerity Become a 4 Letter Word?

Posted by on Apr 26, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  Suddenly, everywhere you look, “austerity” has become a 4 letter word. Clearly it wasn’t excessive spending that caused too much debt. Surely we didn’t hit a financial crisis in spite of excessive spending, nope, it is all the fault of austerity. In the rush to avoid supporting anything that could be viewed as “austerity” […]

The T Report: The Fed Clarifies and the Market Yawns

Posted by on Apr 26, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

I think we all know now what the Fed is thinking. Ben is happy to add more liquidity to the system but is constrained by a group that needs to see bad data before they can support him. I think it is pretty straightforward on the economic data front. Bad data, particularly in jobs and […]

What the TF? The SEC, NRSRO, Free Speech, and Lawsuits

Posted by on Apr 25, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  So Egan-Jones is being sued by the SEC. The primary reason is that they allegedly overstated their experience in rating government bonds and ABS. It also looks like twice they rated companies that employees owned stock in. I certainly disagreed with Egan-Jones on their assessment of JEF, and in that case I turned out […]

The T Report: AAPL-on, but will Ben drink the Calvados?

Posted by on Apr 25, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

As far as I can tell AAPL is driving everything. It’s no longer risk-on/risk-off, for the entire week, it has been AAPL-on/AAPL-off. As a result of AAPL earnings, stocks around the globe are reacting positively. Spanish 10 year bonds dipped below 5.70% at one time today, and CDS was 25 bps tighter, all the way […]