What the TF? Wrong vs Bad Data and is 2012 the same as 2011 & 2010?
There is a difference between “bad” data and “wrong” data. Look at the markets in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Then look at the data. While much has been made about how 2010 and 2011 look similar little has been said about how similar 2009 was to those other years. All three years had big […]
The T Report: What do Natural Gas and Equities Have in Common?
EVERYTHING! I have been reading more and more articles about how the bottom may have been put in for natural gas. Producers are slowly but surely figuring out ways to cut production in response to low prices. Demand is being created as U.S. industrial production picks up and more projects that take advantage of […]
Afternoon T Got me thinking about the British
What will London do? That is one of the big questions going around. London was closed today, so in spite of Europe being open, the biggest financial centre was closed. How will it affect markets tomorrow? With limited macro data coming out overnight, I suspect we will see the rally continue into tomorrow morning. […]
TFMkts Best Ideas: New Ideas and Updated History
Short treasuries. Short the long bond (or TBF in ETF’s). The economic data, while weak, wasn’t that bad. We aren’t getting QE3 anytime soon, and any good data good be enough to cause a quick reversal. Europe in the process of reverting to old currencies, but they don’t admit that yet, and are likely […]
What the TF? New Greek Govt Looks at Old Govt’s Debt Deal
In a world full of unintended consequences (where unintended invariably means bad) the profile of the Greece’s debt is interesting. Greece currently has €220 billion of debt outstanding. That will grow as part of the “bail-out” but since the bank recapitalization isn’t done, and other money has been held back, the amount is smaller […]
The T Report: Europe Wasn’t Destroyed in a Day
Just like Rome wasn’t built in a day, the Eurozone won’t be destroyed in a day, but it is on a path that leads to eventual dismantling. What day will historians choose to pick as the day that the Euro died? The day Greece or someone else first leaves the Euro The elections of […]
The Weekly T Report: The Paucity of Growth
By Monday there will have been a real shift in the political landscape in Europe In Greece, there is a real backlash against the alleged bailout. The bailout was never about Greece. In the end, with PSI, it wasn’t even about the banks. It is some convoluted concoction brought about by the arrogance of […]
TFMkts Best Ideas: Why shorting Spanish and Italian Bonds is the Right Trade
I continue to believe that longer dated Spanish and Italian bonds are poised for a significant sell-off. At this stage everyone knows the problems the two countries are facing. Spain’s economy seems to be doing worse than Italy, but Italy has a heavier debt burden. Over the past few weeks, more and more investors […]
The T Report: ECB, NFP, Don’t Hold Your Breath Waiting for Rotation into Equities
Jobless claims better than expected and back to levels where we had been earlier this year (after they were revised upwards). This data has been so consistently revised higher, that the market is taking it with a grain of salt. Spanish and Italian bonds are holding onto to most of their earlier gains on […]
The T Report: Draghi Straits – Money For Nothing
Economic data in Europe brought us back to our typical reality. The economic conditions are getting worse, unemployment is breaking records, and the stocks and banks of the periphery are in trouble again. The main support for the market is complete faith that Draghi and ECB will unveil some new plan that will make […]