What the TF? Can the 800 Pound Gorilla be Thoughtful?

Posted by on May 12, 2012 in Uncategorized | One Comment

  While we are left guessing as to what the positions are, we have even less clue of how JPM decided to put on the positions. In the end, that is a key question. Chest Pounding Gorillas Maybe the trader at JPM had been selling some IG9 tranches for something to do. They liked the […]

A Weird Day, and Weirdly Enough, No Change to My Views

Posted by on May 11, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  Today is one for the record books. IG18 was at 103 yesterday at 4pm. HY18 was at 95.25. HYG was at 90.58. Both CDS indices were tighter on the day and HYG was a bit lower. IG18 is at 108.5 right now. HY18 is 95, so -1/4. HYG is actually up. The S&P is […]

What Could have Happened at JPM

Posted by on May 11, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  Well for once we don’t have to talk about Spain or Greece. This is the end of synthetic CDO’s and may well be the end of CDS as an OTC product, but we have time to look at that later. There will be a lot of information and misinformation out there. For now, the […]

The ECB and Greece: The Lender of Last Retort Attitude Must Change

Posted by on May 10, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  The ECB seems to be quite happy to comment on Greece, and most of the comments seem to say that Greece isn’t doing their part. Well, what about the ECB? What have they been doing for Greece? So far, not very much and I think they need to start to play nicely with their […]

The T Report: The Axis of Weeble

Posted by on May 10, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  Weebles wobble, but they don’t fall down. Europe, and the Euro in particular might fall, but right now they are close to the bottom of this current wobble and are about to start another upswing (seriously, as I kid, you could make a Weeble fall down, but it was hard). Greece is a basket […]

The T Report: The Pain in Spain is Mainly, well Everywhere

Posted by on May 9, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  Spain. Spain. Spain. The reality is Greece is largely noise. Greece will eventually leave the Eurozone, but not this month. The hardliners inside Greece will realize they need some time to organize. The markets will have spooked the hardliners outside of Greece that they should play nice for a little bit, because forcing Greece […]

What the TF happened to Spanish Bonds?

Posted by on May 9, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  So what did happen in Spain today? What is causing Spanish bonds to go down so much? The first answer is relatively easy. Nothing much new happened in Spain today, just variations of the same theme that has been out there for weeks if not months. What we have is a struggling country with […]

TFMkts Analysis: Greece is the Word

Posted by on May 9, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  Here is my best guess at what will happen with Greece. In spite of all the rhetoric, Greece will make the May payments. Whoever is in charge will get calls from Merkel, Lagarde, and Draghi warning them of the global carnage that would ensue if they miss those payments. I think in this case […]

What the TF? Greek Debt, Then and Now

Posted by on May 8, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

  So here we take a look at Greek Debt outstanding in Q4 2009 versus today. I chose Q4 because that seems to have been prior to their being a “crisis” which first really became noise in Q1 2010. The most striking thing, is according to this, Greece’s €220 billion of current debt is less […]