TFMkts Analysis: Index Changes and Some Additional Thoughts
With CDX and credit indices being such a topic of conversation, I took a look at the 1 month changes as of May 12th. I selected U.S. and European Credit Indices that had NET position changes of $1 billion during that 4 week period. I also included some with smaller changes where it made […]
The T Report: From Idiosyncratic to Idiotsyncratic. Greece and HY ETF’s
The idiosyncratic risk is really coming from two sources and the fact that at the margin they collide is adding to the confusion and the volatility in the market. Right now the problems in Europe are directly tied to Greece. Spain and Italy continue to have problems, and nothing is close to being resolved, […]
What the TF? JPM, Just the Facts, Ma’am.
I wish we could go into just the facts, but frankly we don’t know the facts, so here is my best guess at piecing together what happened and what some of the consequences might be. I hope it is mostly correct, which means it is balanced and not sensationalized like so much else that […]
The T Report: Credit Markets – Transformers vs Decepticons
In the movies there are these great battles fought out between the transformers and decepticons. As cool as the battles are, there must be some innocent bystanders wondering what the heck is going on amid all the destruction. That to me is how the credit markets are trading right now. None of the core […]
Greek Debt Maturing within 10 Years.
The red lines represent Troika loans. These cost L+300 or 4% currently and are about 75 billion Euro. Virtually all of the rest of the debt is held by the ECB or EIB or some other non private entity. Those bonds have an average coupon of around 5%. If Greece was to leave the Euro, […]
The T Report: What Now? And is There Anything New to Talk About?
So now what? Greece. Will they pay the bond due today or not? Will they form a new government or not? Does anyone care? That is becoming the question. The market is gradually becoming numb to the news. I don’t think Greece can leave just yet. It would cause too much confusion, and no […]
TFMkts Analysis: The JPM Conference Call – A Closer Look
Here is the “transcript” that everyone is talking about, but it would seem only listened to with selective hearing and have read without reading. This is my analysis of what was said and what it could mean. So he comes clean about the loss. It is $800 million after taxes. Just over $2 billion […]
The T Report: The Axis of Weeble is Definitely Wobbling
Weebles wobbling, spinning tops running out of energy, running out of room to kick the can, whatever analogy you want to use, the world seems like an incredibly dangerous place. Greece is going to leave the Euro. That is now pretty much everyone’s expectation. I continue to believe that although they are highly likely […]
What the TF? The Coolest Trade I ever Saw
On the coolest trade I ever witnessed, I was an unwitting participant. In the end, I don’t know if any of it is true, but this is the story I saw and was a part of, and the firm’s P&L seemed to back it up. I only mention it now, because I can’t help […]
The Weekly T Report: For Once the Focus Wasn’t on Europe
What a week. Just over a week ago we had a disappointing non-farm payroll report (why don’t farmers count?) that sparked a sell-off that accelerated throughout the day as the market got nervous about the elections. The market was right to be nervous about the elections. The Greek elections resulted in some groups adamantly opposed […]