Two World Wars and One World Cup
This has to be one of my favorite football chants of all time. It’s the English reminding the Germans of World War I and II and the World Cup loss all in one catchy tune. As fun as it might be to have Italy make it through to the next round of Euro2012 so we […]
The 7% Yield Myth
The 7% myth. We have heard a lot about what it means to cross the 7% threshold. It definitely used to be pretty much a one way ticket to destruction – Ireland, Portugal, and Greece are all prime examples. In November, Italy hit 7% and the EU responded. The response came in fits and […]
The T Report: If it feels like we’ve been here before, It’s because we have
Every Friday is starting to feel the same. Economic data is weak and is deteriorating. Spain is the main topic of discussion with just enough about Greece and Germany added in to make it truly painful. And somewhere in the world, policy makers of one form or another are meeting to see if they can […]
The T Report: How I Became a Perma-Bull
The term “perma” seems to get attached to anyone who has an opinion for more than a couple of weeks, but yes, I have changed my view on Europe. By the end of LTRO2 when most of the world was bullish we were bearish. It was painful for a bit, but we saw the signs […]
The T Report: Long and Prepared to React
There is not a whole lot to write that I haven’t written already. Today will largely be about reaction. We should finally get some answers to some big questions. Reacting to them will be key. FED I expect that the Fed will actually surprise and announce some new version of real QE. Mortgage purchases with […]
I Come Not to Praise Rating Agencies, but to Bury Them
The rating agencies have lots of problems, but they are not to blame for the financial crisis. The regulators and investors are the ones who deserve the blame. The agencies have too much influence, but it’s been given to them by the regulators. The latest round of anti-rating agency sentiment was sparked by “unfair” downgrades […]
May 11th Closing Targets Kind of Reached – What Next?
May 11th close targets kind of reached. For quite awhile, I have argued that May 11th closing prices made sense. It reflects worsening economic data and captures the initial shock of the JPM announcement, but not all the overhyped selling, and was back when Grexit was an option, but not the most likely. S&P was […]
The T Report: G-20 Orders Fiddles for Everyone
The image of Nero playing a fiddle while Rome burns is just too clear in my mind today. Spanish Bank Bailout 10 days old and no details No Greek Government and no clear sign of how EU will deal with Greece Spanish Bank Audit Delayed EFSF available but no new programs have been launched ESM, […]
The ECB’s Greek Bond Holdings and what the ECB could do
Every time I mention that the ECB could convert their holdings to PSI bonds, I’m told it wouldn’t make a difference. Well, currently I see €56.6 billion of bonds that are specifically labeled as series “CBE” or are Greek law bonds that would have PSI’d otherwise. It seems a bit larger than some other numbers […]
The T Report: The “Nothing is Fixed” Rally and What to Make of Spain
The “Nothing is Fixed” rally continues to annoy most people. Just like last week, the refrains that nothing is fixed and nothing can be done are ringing out loud and clear, and once again markets have faded from overnight highs. While the “Nothing is Fixed” rally is only possible because of government intervention and the […]