Bankia and the Benefit of Bondholder Losses

Posted by on Jul 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Bankia’s Balance Sheet I’m not sure how much I trust any of the data on Bankia since I am always dubious of anything that was cobbled together in a state of panic, but let’s take a look at some of the numbers that are out there: Total Assets: €303 billion. Long Term Borrowings and Liabilities: […]

The T Report: Bears are Tired if not ready for Hibernation

Posted by on Jul 16, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

The Only Thing Wrong with the Bear Argument is that it has been Wrong The bear argument is persuasive. It is well reasoned, makes sense, is supported by fact, yet it hasn’t been working. I was bearish early this year. Too early, but eventually the market did break down from 1,400. Near the end, many […]

The Fed’s LIBOR Tools. Add Tacit Complicity?

Posted by on Jul 14, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

The LIBOR Problem During the Financial Crisis, the Fed, the Treasury, and the FDIC were all fighting to keep the banks solvent. They all wanted banks to have access to cheap funds. The market became focused on LIBOR (and CDS) as a key indicator of the health of a bank. High LIBOR submissions were taken […]

Weekly T Report: What a Week! LIBOR, JPM, Spain, China, Earnings, Ireland

Posted by on Jul 14, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

LIBOR LIBOR remains an issue for the banks involved. Many of the headlines are confusing, and some are just plain wrong. This issue isn’t going away any time soon, so understanding the potential impacts will be key as reactions to headlines will create opportunities. Only banks that were part of the LIBOR panel can get […]

The T Report: JPM Scorecard Evaluated

Posted by on Jul 13, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

What To Watch For This is definitely one of the most anticipate bank earnings call since at least 2008. People are very focused and I expect to see some volatility in the stock as headlines hit. This is a little scorecard (I will avoid calling it a “cheat sheet”) of what I’m looking for and […]

JPM What to Watch For

Posted by on Jul 13, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

What To Watch For This is definitely one of the most anticipate bank earnings call since at least 2008. People are very focused and I expect to see some volatility in the stock as headlines hit. This is a little scorecard (I will avoid calling it a “cheat sheet”) of what I’m looking for and […]

The Mess of Crisis Time LIBOR

Posted by on Jul 12, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Most Confusing Table I’ve EVER Sent out Date JPM Citi BofA DB HBOS RBS Barc UBS CS Nor BOTM HSBC 10/3/2008 100 345 105 114 228 235 189 171 91 77 55 52 10/3/2008 4.10 4.02 4.50 4.05 4.90 4.50 5.00 4.35 4.50 4.40 4.60 4.10 10/9/2008 103 400 113 102 181 246 149 191 […]

Pre-Crisis LIBOR – Facts and Details

Posted by on Jul 12, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Pre-Crisis LIBOR – Evil but Miniscule This is the most important chart of “pre crisis” LIBOR. I take the submissions from all 16 dealers, every day and compare the 4th highest to the 4th lowest. Neither of those data points would have been used, so it is an absolute maximum influence one dealer could have. […]

The World of LIBOR and Worst Case Lawsuits

Posted by on Jul 11, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

The World of LIBOR We believe that we are in the early stages of what will happen with LIBOR. As we wrote yesterday, we believe there are two distinct phases the pre-crisis phase which saw potential manipulation of small amounts in both directions, and the crisis phase where LIBOR was allegedly much lower than the […]

The T Report: Lying LIBOR Banks, Spanish MOU, & Earnings

Posted by on Jul 11, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Spanish Bank Bailout The memorandum of understanding was “leaked” yesterday. I went through it and evaluated it. I rate it somewhere between a C+ and B- though with some room to improve. My biggest concerns were it seems to be a cumbersome slow moving process when speed is of the essence and that the terms […]