The Weekly T Report: Moore’s Law Meets Murphy’s Law & Milken
Let’s Get Europe Out of the Way I would love to be able to say that Europe is fixed. It isn’t and this particular summit was particularly disappointing. They announced some vague plan to plan a bank supervisor. I still don’t understand why people really think a bank supervisor would change anything. Just think about […]
The T Report: Monster Trucks, Summits, and Gravity
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday, Monster Truck Madness….or EU Summit It is bad enough when you get a song stuck in your head, but today, I have those Monster Truck commercials stuck in my head. The deep voice, pitching the excitement that Sunday, Sunday, Sunday, Monster Truck Madness was coming to your town. Maybe the EU should […]
The T Report: Overdone?
CDS Lagging for First Time in Awhile Yesterday in particular was a huge outperformance for CDS. Spanish bonds were more than 30 bps tighter across the board. That lead to a major squeeze in all the CDS indices. Yet this morning, SNR FINS in Europe is 5 wider, MAIN is 3 wider, and even IG19 […]
The T Report: Memories of 2010
The First Real QE Day Trading Pattern Yesterday’s stock action reminded me a lot of 2010 after QE2. We saw stocks gap higher on the open, then grind higher throughout the day, with a final surge into the close. That to me was a defining pattern of the rally in 2010. Yesterday was really the […]
The T Report: Today’s Debate Brought to You by the Letter E
ESM ESM is finally up and running. It starts with €32 billion of paid-in capital. This money will be invested in short term, highly rated debt. So far it the story is they are buying EIB and KFW bonds. The ESM should now be able to borrow as much as €213 billion (paid-in capital is […]
The T Report: Here We Go Again
So once again futures started the session lower, and bounced overnight and are sitting at near session highs. We have had close to a 1% swing in S&P futures before most Americans have started their week (including me today). I think this is another opportunity to shed some risk. I continue to believe that […]
Banks: Hedgeless Horsemen, VAR, & Bear Stearns
Mr. Dimon Wishes He Hadn’t Bought Bear Stearns and So Do I For many people, the point of no return in policy in this country was when JPM bought Bear Stearns in a hastily constructed deal, motivated as much by fear of the unknown as an rational business argument. Short dated Bear Stearns bonds were […]
The T Report: Gangnam Style and Who the U.S. Isn’t
Gangnam Style and YMCA I remember back in the early 90’s travelling through countries where many people didn’t speak English. In spite of not speaking English, they listened to American music. Dance floors would be packed with people who knew the words to songs without knowing their meaning. I found it fascinating. Fortunately for me, […]
The T Report: Greece is the Word and OMT isn’t a Word
How OSI May be the End of OMT and ESM For now we can ignore the brutal statistic of 25% unemployment. That sounds callous, and I guess it is, but that is not why Greece is going to become a key issue in the ongoing battle of European bailouts. There is growing talk of some […]
The T Report: Mythbusters on BLS, Treasuries, Apple & HY
BLS Data I don’t think the BLS is nefarious or did anything wrong with last week’s numbers. I’m frankly surprised by the disbelief many have with the numbers, though it is part of what seems to be a growing trend – frustration at manipulated markets. The household survey is flawed in its methodology. It is […]