Afternoon T-Report: Traffic Jams, Learned Behavior, and Neon Gazelles
How Traffic Jams Start One of the favorite bits of research I ever read was in college and it was study on how traffic jams form. I can’t remember the details, as it was my friend’s class not mine, but he test was to randomly hit the brakes and see how many traffic jams you […]
The T-Report: Lord Cliffdemort
The Name That Shall Not Be Spoken CNBC has a “Cliff Countdown” clock. Every second interview seems to be about the cliff. Well, I am going to try and avoid it as much as possible. My post election view was that the concern was massively overdone. My view now is there is a little too […]
The T-Report: Doom, Gloom, Hopium and Reality
What is Priced In? Here is a simplistic view of what is priced in. It is my best guess of overall sentiment which is largely based on the hopes and dreams of political action, central bankers, and overall assessment of future prospect. It ranges from all out all out wringing of the hands and gnashing […]
The T-Report: Santa Claus is Coming To Town
A Bad Song and a Worse Investment Strategy It’s that time of the year where normally tolerable radio stations insert so many holiday songs into the mix that it becomes unbearable, and apparently it is the time of the year where we are reminded investments only go up in December. In general, I don’t disagree. […]
Weekly Fixed Income Summary & Strategy: Tired of the Yield Chase?
Chasing Yield Is Tiring Work – is the Market fit enough to keep going? Well we got some chase for yield. High yield did well. EM did okay, as did Munis and Investment Grade. Closed end funds on the fixed income side did very well, benefitting from leverage and short memories, where once again investors […]
Fixed Income Strategy Update
Fixed Income Strategy Update: High Yield. Recommend cutting 20% in each portfolio. So Core is 20% now, Traded and Aggressive down to 0%. Leveraged Loans will be cut to 25% in each of those portfolios, so reductions of 15%, 25%, and 15% respectively. Definitely shifted all the way to a neutral stance, if not “risk […]
The T-Report: Too High, Too Fast?
My target has been 1,430. We are almost there. Last time I changed my mind too early it was a costly mistake. I had been bearish coming into election with a target range of 1,375 – 1,400. Yet at 1,400 I cut the shorts and missed the move to 1,375 (and lower) and was on […]
The T-Report: You Look Great in Blue, Buy This Pink Dress
There was some chatter about the performance of fixed income ETF’s yesterday. They performed poorly at least relative to stocks and some had a late day sell-off fueling some speculation that credit wasn’t doing well. That speculation was just wrong, but highlighted some problems with existing fixed income ETF’s. They were trading at a premium […]
Afternoon T: Up, Down, and All Around
I can’t believe it’s only Wednesday. It has been a whirlwind week, in fact a whirlwind two weeks. With all that is going on, I figured I should clarify where I stand, as it’s been hectic. This note is more fun to write because I managed to do the opposite of getting whipsawed – […]
Afternoon T: Up, Down, and All Around
I can’t believe it’s only Wednesday. It has been a whirlwind week, in fact a whirlwind two weeks. With all that is going on, I figured I should clarify where I stand, as it’s been hectic. This note is more fun to write because I managed to do the opposite of getting whipsawed – I […]