The T Report: ETF Overload
On this semi-holiday, there is not much to say about the markets. NFP was a disappointment. Those of us who have been arguing that the jobs data in January and February was inflated by the great weather and that the seasonal adjustments may have overstated the job recovery are feeling vindicated today. Job growth is […]
The T Report: Two Types of Credit Losses
There are signs that the credit situation in Europe is deteriorating. Bond yields and spreads are worse across the board once again. Of some concern is that Italy is underperforming Spain a bit today, in CDS, the 5yr, and 10yr points. The “firewalls” can’t really handle Spain, but there is nothing to do if Italy […]
The T Report: “Rate” Products and “Credit” Products
Clearly Spain is the story of the day. The auction was weak in every possible way. They sold less than the maximum, at yields worse than last time, and with much lower bid to cover ratios. That accelerated the sell-off that was started after the Fed came out with a less dovish statement than the […]
The T Report: Are Stocks Giffen Goods?
So when will retail investors start buying stocks? One of the final legs propping up this rally is the belief that retail investors will finally pile into stocks. There is hope that all this “money on the sidelines” will find its way into the stock market. The S&P at 1,350 was supposed to do the […]
Afternoon T: Strong Start to the Quarter
A little pre-open jitters, a bit shaky on the open and then into the Construction Spending and ISM data, and then off to the races. Nearly everything is up or better today, in fact you know it is a strong day when market even natural gas can manage a gain. So the rally today is […]
The T Report: Dueling PMI’s and Jobs in Europe
Chinese PMI has given people the chance to show just how bullish or bearish they are, and their willingness to spin the data to suit their view. The bulls point to the “official” data and say the bounce is real and holidays had a bigger impact than people realized. The bears (including me) find the […]
The T Report: The Further Away From Equities The Less Excited You Are
Yesterday’s reversal in stocks was quite amazing. Not only was it large, but it came later in the day than usual as stocks as continued to test their “Europe went home” price and it was hard to figure out what rumor actually was the catalyst for the turnaround. The “credit” ETF’s followed nicely, and HYG […]
The T Report: Weak Data and European Debt Concerns
The data this morning was weak. Jobless claims looked bad. Expectations of 350k and an actual print of 359k. Some headlines read that the number was an improvement from last week, but only because last week’s data was revised up by 16k. Not horrible numbers, but so much hope has been placed on an improving […]