The T Report: A Paucity of Change, Greece & CPDO
On Election Eve and all through the house it’s as quiet as a mouse Maybe it is just me, but the election already seems anti-climatic. After what seems like close to 3.5 years of campaigning, the election is finally upon us. Maybe it is the length of the campaign, or the after effects of hurricane […]
TFMkts Fixed Income Overview and Allocation Strategies
Pop and then Gravity The week started positively. In spite of fears related to hurricane Sandy, risk assets started the week on a positive note. Wednesday, when U.S. markets finally opened, the rally was a bit tentative, but then it gained strength on Thursday. We had remained positive that morning on risk, in a large […]
The T Report: “We finally really did it” Planet of the Apes Style
You Maniacs! You blew it up! Oh, damn you! With part of NYC under water this week, I can’t shake the image of the Statue of Liberty from the end of the Planet of the Apes. In that case, the devastation was something mankind had done to itself. In many ways, it is hard to […]
TFMkts Fixed Income Overview
From Risk Off to Risk Neutral Until Friday of last week, we had been in a risk off stance. We had believed that the market was too optimistic about what immediate impact QE would have and that too many had over-estimated how eager Europe was to proceed with new and bigger bailouts. Those all helped […]
Weekly T Report: OMT – From OMG to MIA & Why It Drives Risk
Even A Risk on/Risk Off World Isn’t This Simple, Or Is it? This is the S&P 500 since July. We’ve had earnings, elections, open ended QE, attacks on embassies, doubts about the viability of social media as a business, weak economic data out of China, bouts of strength with U.S. economic data, budgets, and stress […]
The T Report: Stirred Not Shaken
I Am Confused No, I’m not confused that the correct phrase is Shaken, Not Stirred, I’m confused by what to do with the market here. My two big targets have been hit with 1,400 on the S&P 500 now reality and IG19 is extremely close to 100. Spanish 5 year bond yields are above where […]
The T Report: The 6th Time is a Charm for Stock Futures?
Yeah, Futures are up, going to be a great day! For some reason people seem even more excited that futures are up this morning than they have the past 6 mornings. Yes, I took positions off as we approached overall target levels (1,400 on S&P and 100 on IG19) but can now reload what got […]
The T Report: Kim Kardashian and the Fed
Once you have bared it all, repeatedly, there is little novelty or excitement left. After last month’s FOMC decision when the Fed went all in, this meeting has low expectations for the market. Here is what to look for, and how I think markets will react. No Change in Size of QE The $85 billion […]
The T Report: Canaries Banned from Coalmines (Elephants Allowed)
Fresh Lows Overnight we are hitting new lows with S&P futures touching 1414, a level not seen since early September and pre OMT and QEX. Nasdaq 100 futures are even worse, hitting levels last seen in early August, right after the “whatever it takes” speech finally got some traction. Credit indices have been wider than […]
The T Report: Falling Knives, Dead CATs & Strikeless Puts
Falling Knives Europe has played a dangerous game of catching falling knives. Do nothing. Markets weaken. Have some meetings and vague plans. Markets turn more negative. Complain about speculators. Market starts to panic and economies constrict. Politicians and Central Bankers talk more. Markets swing up and down between hopes of some new solution and fears […]
