TFMkt Best Ideas Update and Summary
Getting very bearish now with several new trades: Short Italy via CDS. Buy Italian CDS at 440. Market seems very fragile, particularly in bonds, but if Spanish 10 year yields can’t hold 6% look for a sell-off across the board. Short IG18 at 102.75. Buy protection on IG18. The market traded well earlier today, but […]
The T-Report: Spain, Italy, & HYG. All driving markets lower
Spain and Italy. Spanish 10 year yields are heading to 6%. They are at 5.94% and without some ECB intervention soon are likely to pierce 6%. I think we are on the cusp of a lot of stop loss orders and with limited liquidity, the move could be fast and painful. We remain with a […]
TF Market Advisors – IG9 Tranches Explained
There is a lot of talk about IG9 these days. I think the story has a lot more to do with tranches than with outright selling of the index. IG9 10 year is a 125 name, equally weighted CDS index that matures on December 20, 2017. The index has had 4 defaults, Fannie Mae, Freddie […]
TFMkts Best Trade Idea Update
For those of you awake, sell SPX (ES) at 1379. Cover yesterday’s long set at 1374.5 AND set a short. So go from long SPX to short SPX (will send a summary of current trades on later this morning). Strength in U.S. stocks makes little sense to me with Spanish and Italian bonds selling off. […]
TFMkts – New Trade Idea and Fixed Income Allocation Adjustment
Buy SPX and take HY “fixed income allocation” from 10% to 20%. HYG 89.35 and SPX 1379. We took HYG down early last week from a 15% ideal to 10%. Now up to 20%. We have seen a decent move and were waiting for this opportunity to nibble and add more risk/yield. This is also […]
Trade Idea – IG9 10yr vs IG18
We are still in the process of developing a variety of distribution lists. Our apologies to you if your are annoyed to receive an IG9 10yr CDS trade idea. We hope to have the lists better organized by Wednesday. Buy IG9 10yr protection and Sell IG18 protection against it The market has been fixated on […]
The T Report: Still in Holiday Mode
With Europe effectively shut down today it looks like it will be a dull day. Chinese CPI came in a bit higher than expected at 3.6%, and was largely a result of food inflation, tempering the hopes that China would ease more aggressively. PPI came in as expected at -0.3% signaling that the production slowdown […]
The Weekly Update – NFP and 50 DMA For S&P
In a very thin market, the S&P futures came very close to hitting their 50 DMA on Friday. The S&P futures went from a high of 1,418 on Monday, to trade as low as 1,372 on Friday. A 46 point swing is healthy correction at the very least, if not an ominous warning sign of […]
The T Report: ETF Overload
On this semi-holiday, there is not much to say about the markets. NFP was a disappointment. Those of us who have been arguing that the jobs data in January and February was inflated by the great weather and that the seasonal adjustments may have overstated the job recovery are feeling vindicated today. Job growth is […]
The T Report: Two Types of Credit Losses
There are signs that the credit situation in Europe is deteriorating. Bond yields and spreads are worse across the board once again. Of some concern is that Italy is underperforming Spain a bit today, in CDS, the 5yr, and 10yr points. The “firewalls” can’t really handle Spain, but there is nothing to do if Italy […]
