The T Report: GDP Better Be Good and Redefining “Successful” Auctions
The market has continued its overnight rebound, at least in part on expectations that GDP will hit 3%. I could see that happening quite easily. There was enough good data at the start of the year that the consensus estimate of 2.5% seems slow. The same group that complains about how Case-Shiller is backwards […]
What the TF? When did Austerity Become a 4 Letter Word?
Suddenly, everywhere you look, “austerity” has become a 4 letter word. Clearly it wasn’t excessive spending that caused too much debt. Surely we didn’t hit a financial crisis in spite of excessive spending, nope, it is all the fault of austerity. In the rush to avoid supporting anything that could be viewed as “austerity” […]
The T Report: The Fed Clarifies and the Market Yawns
I think we all know now what the Fed is thinking. Ben is happy to add more liquidity to the system but is constrained by a group that needs to see bad data before they can support him. I think it is pretty straightforward on the economic data front. Bad data, particularly in jobs and […]
What the TF? The SEC, NRSRO, Free Speech, and Lawsuits
So Egan-Jones is being sued by the SEC. The primary reason is that they allegedly overstated their experience in rating government bonds and ABS. It also looks like twice they rated companies that employees owned stock in. I certainly disagreed with Egan-Jones on their assessment of JEF, and in that case I turned out […]
The T Report: AAPL-on, but will Ben drink the Calvados?
As far as I can tell AAPL is driving everything. It’s no longer risk-on/risk-off, for the entire week, it has been AAPL-on/AAPL-off. As a result of AAPL earnings, stocks around the globe are reacting positively. Spanish 10 year bonds dipped below 5.70% at one time today, and CDS was 25 bps tighter, all the way […]
The T Report – The Day Austerity Died
Austerity is dead! Long live Spending! Futures are up, Italian and Spanish bonds are up, CDS spreads on them are at least 10 bps tighter, and MAIN is 3 bps tighter on the day (though I have this feeling I better type fast as we are starting to fade off the best levels). Lots of […]
More reasons to be worried about Spanish and Italian Bonds
I don’t normally follow charts closely, but the last time an ex-colleague of mine, Chico Khan-Gandapur sent out an interesting chart on European debt, it worked out. This one also points to risk of a breakout in Italian yields. It is flirting with the extended trend-line in white, and an Inverse head and shoulders pattern […]
The T Report: Europe has its Parti Quebecois Moment
I have said and written that I expect to see more nationalism come into play as the crisis continues. I may have been a bit early, but we are seeing growing signs of it, with Marine le Pen’s strong showing in yesterday’s French election being the most obvious example. The Dutch Parliament’s failure to approve […]
TFMkts: Best ideas Update
Short Nasdaq (ND futures, QQQ cash) We initiated this position at 2734 on the ND futures on April the 10th in the pre-market. I had originally target 2,690 as a take-out, but expected ES to hit 1,359 first so focused on closing that trade first. Short SPX (ES Futures, SPY cash) We set this […]
TFMkts: Weekly Fixed Income Allocation Review
Fixed Income had a decent week. Treasuries are pure rate products were a little more volatile than more credit focused products like high yield, but in the end most fixed income asset classes had small gains. We made no changes to the allocation mix during the course of the week, but expect to make some […]
