The T Report: Europe Wasn’t Destroyed in a Day
Just like Rome wasn’t built in a day, the Eurozone won’t be destroyed in a day, but it is on a path that leads to eventual dismantling. What day will historians choose to pick as the day that the Euro died? The day Greece or someone else first leaves the Euro The elections of […]
The Weekly T Report: The Paucity of Growth
By Monday there will have been a real shift in the political landscape in Europe In Greece, there is a real backlash against the alleged bailout. The bailout was never about Greece. In the end, with PSI, it wasn’t even about the banks. It is some convoluted concoction brought about by the arrogance of […]
TFMkts Best Ideas: Why shorting Spanish and Italian Bonds is the Right Trade
I continue to believe that longer dated Spanish and Italian bonds are poised for a significant sell-off. At this stage everyone knows the problems the two countries are facing. Spain’s economy seems to be doing worse than Italy, but Italy has a heavier debt burden. Over the past few weeks, more and more investors […]
The T Report: ECB, NFP, Don’t Hold Your Breath Waiting for Rotation into Equities
Jobless claims better than expected and back to levels where we had been earlier this year (after they were revised upwards). This data has been so consistently revised higher, that the market is taking it with a grain of salt. Spanish and Italian bonds are holding onto to most of their earlier gains on […]
The T Report: Draghi Straits – Money For Nothing
Economic data in Europe brought us back to our typical reality. The economic conditions are getting worse, unemployment is breaking records, and the stocks and banks of the periphery are in trouble again. The main support for the market is complete faith that Draghi and ECB will unveil some new plan that will make […]
The T Report: May Fixed Income “Core” Allocation and April Performance Update
This is the “core” fixed income allocation. The goal of the “core” portfolio is to provide monthly updates, with some intermittent changes as market conditions warrant. The allocations are intended to provide good income opportunities, with the best risk/reward profile and the ability to take advantage of major market opportunities when they occur. We […]
The T Report: Austerity, Spending & the Black Market in the Room
A dull morning with the Euro markets shut down. Stock futures have meandered throughout the overnight session, trading up and down, but in a narrow range. We get the ISM data and vehicles sales today. It would be surprising if ISM didn’t disappoint, which means the market has already priced in a print lower […]
The T Report: Central Banks, Growth, and Waiting for Data
The Weekly Report pretty much covers the big issue of the week. Will Central Banks and governments do something to help the market? It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they won’t do anything that really helps the economies, but there is hope that they will help the markets. Growth has become the […]
What the TF? Give Austerity a Chance. Spending for Growth Already Failed.
The markets may decide to play along with the renewed talk of growth and the death of austerity, but it is shocking how quickly writers and the media have latched on to the idea that growth will somehow save us and that the entire problem is the fault of austerity. Although it seems like it […]
The Weekly T Report: BJ and the Bear
CB’s, CB’s, CB’s, everywhere you look people are writing or talking about central banks. The last time CB’s were this omnipresent in America, BJ and the Bear was on TV, Convoy was the movie, people had cool “handles” and said think like roger that, and 10-4 big buddy. Now it’s twitter “handles”, CYA’s and […]
