The T Report: The Axis of Weeble
Weebles wobble, but they don’t fall down. Europe, and the Euro in particular might fall, but right now they are close to the bottom of this current wobble and are about to start another upswing (seriously, as I kid, you could make a Weeble fall down, but it was hard). Greece is a basket […]
The T Report: The Pain in Spain is Mainly, well Everywhere
Spain. Spain. Spain. The reality is Greece is largely noise. Greece will eventually leave the Eurozone, but not this month. The hardliners inside Greece will realize they need some time to organize. The markets will have spooked the hardliners outside of Greece that they should play nice for a little bit, because forcing Greece […]
What the TF happened to Spanish Bonds?
So what did happen in Spain today? What is causing Spanish bonds to go down so much? The first answer is relatively easy. Nothing much new happened in Spain today, just variations of the same theme that has been out there for weeks if not months. What we have is a struggling country with […]
TFMkts Analysis: Greece is the Word
Here is my best guess at what will happen with Greece. In spite of all the rhetoric, Greece will make the May payments. Whoever is in charge will get calls from Merkel, Lagarde, and Draghi warning them of the global carnage that would ensue if they miss those payments. I think in this case […]
What the TF? Greek Debt, Then and Now
So here we take a look at Greek Debt outstanding in Q4 2009 versus today. I chose Q4 because that seems to have been prior to their being a “crisis” which first really became noise in Q1 2010. The most striking thing, is according to this, Greece’s €220 billion of current debt is less […]
What the TF? Wrong vs Bad Data and is 2012 the same as 2011 & 2010?
There is a difference between “bad” data and “wrong” data. Look at the markets in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Then look at the data. While much has been made about how 2010 and 2011 look similar little has been said about how similar 2009 was to those other years. All three years had big […]
The T Report: What do Natural Gas and Equities Have in Common?
EVERYTHING! I have been reading more and more articles about how the bottom may have been put in for natural gas. Producers are slowly but surely figuring out ways to cut production in response to low prices. Demand is being created as U.S. industrial production picks up and more projects that take advantage of […]
Afternoon T Got me thinking about the British
What will London do? That is one of the big questions going around. London was closed today, so in spite of Europe being open, the biggest financial centre was closed. How will it affect markets tomorrow? With limited macro data coming out overnight, I suspect we will see the rally continue into tomorrow morning. […]
TFMkts Best Ideas: New Ideas and Updated History
Short treasuries. Short the long bond (or TBF in ETF’s). The economic data, while weak, wasn’t that bad. We aren’t getting QE3 anytime soon, and any good data good be enough to cause a quick reversal. Europe in the process of reverting to old currencies, but they don’t admit that yet, and are likely […]
What the TF? New Greek Govt Looks at Old Govt’s Debt Deal
In a world full of unintended consequences (where unintended invariably means bad) the profile of the Greece’s debt is interesting. Greece currently has €220 billion of debt outstanding. That will grow as part of the “bail-out” but since the bank recapitalization isn’t done, and other money has been held back, the amount is smaller […]
