Greek Debt Maturing within 10 Years.
The red lines represent Troika loans. These cost L+300 or 4% currently and are about 75 billion Euro. Virtually all of the rest of the debt is held by the ECB or EIB or some other non private entity. Those bonds have an average coupon of around 5%. If Greece was to leave the Euro, […]
The T Report: What Now? And is There Anything New to Talk About?
So now what? Greece. Will they pay the bond due today or not? Will they form a new government or not? Does anyone care? That is becoming the question. The market is gradually becoming numb to the news. I don’t think Greece can leave just yet. It would cause too much confusion, and no […]
TFMkts Analysis: The JPM Conference Call – A Closer Look
Here is the “transcript” that everyone is talking about, but it would seem only listened to with selective hearing and have read without reading. This is my analysis of what was said and what it could mean. So he comes clean about the loss. It is $800 million after taxes. Just over $2 billion […]
The T Report: The Axis of Weeble is Definitely Wobbling
Weebles wobbling, spinning tops running out of energy, running out of room to kick the can, whatever analogy you want to use, the world seems like an incredibly dangerous place. Greece is going to leave the Euro. That is now pretty much everyone’s expectation. I continue to believe that although they are highly likely […]
What the TF? The Coolest Trade I ever Saw
On the coolest trade I ever witnessed, I was an unwitting participant. In the end, I don’t know if any of it is true, but this is the story I saw and was a part of, and the firm’s P&L seemed to back it up. I only mention it now, because I can’t help […]
What the TF? Can the 800 Pound Gorilla be Thoughtful?
While we are left guessing as to what the positions are, we have even less clue of how JPM decided to put on the positions. In the end, that is a key question. Chest Pounding Gorillas Maybe the trader at JPM had been selling some IG9 tranches for something to do. They liked the […]
A Weird Day, and Weirdly Enough, No Change to My Views
Today is one for the record books. IG18 was at 103 yesterday at 4pm. HY18 was at 95.25. HYG was at 90.58. Both CDS indices were tighter on the day and HYG was a bit lower. IG18 is at 108.5 right now. HY18 is 95, so -1/4. HYG is actually up. The S&P is […]
What Could have Happened at JPM
Well for once we don’t have to talk about Spain or Greece. This is the end of synthetic CDO’s and may well be the end of CDS as an OTC product, but we have time to look at that later. There will be a lot of information and misinformation out there. For now, the […]
The ECB and Greece: The Lender of Last Retort Attitude Must Change
The ECB seems to be quite happy to comment on Greece, and most of the comments seem to say that Greece isn’t doing their part. Well, what about the ECB? What have they been doing for Greece? So far, not very much and I think they need to start to play nicely with their […]
