The T Report: Attack of the Killer E’s, Ease, and eeze
E’s The ECB will be the driver as it is the only entity in Europe that can make money appear and lend to “banking” entities with wide latitude. The EIB is suddenly stepping up its involvement. Look for “infrastructure” projects to be announced throughout Europe. There will be a focus on the countries in […]
JPM: Some Thoughts and Good Sources
So far only one other report that I have seen tries to explain why the loss may not have grown. The Citi report talks about some of it being reserved rather than recognized losses. That sounds at least in part believable. If they took a charge to reflect where it would trade in fair […]
The T Report: Germany wants to know if Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5 is a Good Hand?
The policy responses and hints of policy responses are starting to come out. What will they be, how big will they be, and what will they accomplish remains to be seen, but the market is due to rally on almost anything. RSI, as a simple indicator of something being oversold or overbought has move […]
JPM: On 3rd and long, time running out, Jamie really took a knee?
We have talking about what may or may not have happened at JPM for the past week, and by “we” I mean the entire market. We do not know the exact nature of their trades, but as far as we can tell from what we read and the rumor mill, JPM had a series […]
The T Report: Corporate Bond Chaos, ETF’s, and JPM’s “additional losses”
Corporate bonds in the U.S. took a beating in the past 48 hours. The high yield market, which had been spared much of the carnage seen in the HY CDS markets, finally succumbed. This chart is key for a couple of reasons. First it shows that the 3 point drop this week and the […]
TFMkts: HY Bonds, ETF’s, and CDS
Lot of attention being focused on HYG and JNK today. LQD also taking a beating (on a spread basis). But the ETF’s have been massively outperforming CDS, which are actually stable today. There are CDS vs ETF trades going […]
TFMkts Analysis: Index Changes and Some Additional Thoughts
With CDX and credit indices being such a topic of conversation, I took a look at the 1 month changes as of May 12th. I selected U.S. and European Credit Indices that had NET position changes of $1 billion during that 4 week period. I also included some with smaller changes where it made […]
The T Report: From Idiosyncratic to Idiotsyncratic. Greece and HY ETF’s
The idiosyncratic risk is really coming from two sources and the fact that at the margin they collide is adding to the confusion and the volatility in the market. Right now the problems in Europe are directly tied to Greece. Spain and Italy continue to have problems, and nothing is close to being resolved, […]
What the TF? JPM, Just the Facts, Ma’am.
I wish we could go into just the facts, but frankly we don’t know the facts, so here is my best guess at piecing together what happened and what some of the consequences might be. I hope it is mostly correct, which means it is balanced and not sensationalized like so much else that […]
The T Report: Credit Markets – Transformers vs Decepticons
In the movies there are these great battles fought out between the transformers and decepticons. As cool as the battles are, there must be some innocent bystanders wondering what the heck is going on amid all the destruction. That to me is how the credit markets are trading right now. None of the core […]
