The T Report: National Acronym Day in Europe. Don’t Underestimate the ECB
So the EC wants the ECB to bypass the EFSF and use the ESM to recap EU banks? That was the rumor that shifted global stock markets by 1% in a matter of minutes? It has been awhile see we looked at the EFSF Flowchart or had a detailed look at the EFSF Guidelines […]
The T Report: Where Have All the Cheerleaders Gone?
Stocks are rising in spite of a lack of cheerleading. Europe did very little last week at the summit and this time it seems most pundits took the time to notice that. The Bankia “rescue” is highlighting how bad the Spanish banking system is how much the country is going to need to spend […]
Spanish Bonds – Austerity, Spending, and Reality
Spanish Bonds – Austerity, Spending, Honesty, and Reality Austerity will not work. While it is prudent to cut some frivolous programs and will be important to cut future programs that were too generous, there is little that can be cut today that won’t actually hurt the economy and make the situation worse. The big savings […]
Europe Fighting the Wrong Battles Again with Dangerous Consequences
Europe continues to fight the wrong battle, and continues to spread contagion risk. It is clear that Greece has had a solvency issue now for over 2 years. The ECB and Troika chose to treat it as a liquidity problem. Maybe, they could have argued that in early 2010, but by the summer of […]
The T Report: Attack of the Killer E’s, Ease, and Eeze Updated
My view from earlier this week remains intact and seems to be playing out. Project bonds are coming. The ECB (except for Weidmann) continues to say positive things and act as though there is more to do. The Fed has been quieter than I expected, but I still believe they will do something, bank […]
Regulatory Capital: Size And How You Use It Both Matter
Bank Regulatory Capital has been in the news a lot recently. The Spanish banks have their own set of capital issues. There has been a lot of discussion about Too Big To Fail (“TBTF”) in the U.S. with regulators demanding more and banks fighting it. After JPM’s surprise loss this month, the debate over […]
The T Report: Planning, Carry, and Intervention
The market continues to trade with extreme volatility. Yesterday’s decline was deep and painful, only to be followed by an equally vicious rally on rumors of a rumor. This morning has already seen Europe rally, fade, then rally again. The overall theme remains the same, with concerns about Europe being counterbalanced by hopes of […]
An Attempt to Decipher What the CDS Index Position Changes Might Mean
Asides from the fact that this should be on an exchange, easier to figure out, and be daily here is a cut of what went on in CDS indices last week since suddenly people seem to care. On the Run Indices Index Type Gross Net Gross Chg Net Chg CDX.NA.IG.18 390,007,779,628 72,766,150,899 56,606,054,188 […]
The T Report: Central Bank Policy Remains Key
The JPM situation continues to seem to settle down. In spite of wild rumors of massive losses, there is little indication that the losses have changed dramatically, and the available for sale portfolio that everyone seems to want to ignore seems in good shape and is there to be harvested. Whatever Mr. Dimon’s “tax […]
Weekly CDX Changes – First Impressions
Raw data. Today Last week Index Type Gross Notional Net Notional Net Notional Change ITRAXX EUROPE 17 351,346,291,855 44,383,154,723 37,642,521,516 6,740,633,207 CDX.NA.IG.9 818,852,195,989 148,852,235,047 145,782,810,765 3,069,424,282 ITRAXX EUROPE 9 616,556,251,632 64,998,650,922 62,601,849,948 2,396,800,974 CDX.NA.HY.18 67,152,281,506 18,777,785,500 17,262,419,000 1,515,366,500 ITRAXX XOVER 17 72,022,637,823 9,133,363,275 8,629,557,282 503,805,993 CDX.NA.HY.10 […]
