The Weekly T Report: Business “Uncertainty”, Spain, and LIBOR
Business “Uncertainty” Lately we hear a lot about business uncertainty. As far as I can tell it is an excuse that companies use when they don’t want to admit that real final demand is there. At the margin it may delay some business launches, but the reality is that is an excuse as much as […]
LIBOR Liability, A Framework for Liebor Liebility
Pre-Crisis – Expect Fines but no Successful Lawsuits My focus has been primarily on the US LIBOR rates as it is the biggest market and comes up repeatedly in the FSA’s letter regarding Barclay’s. The e-mails and phone conversations are despicable. There is clear intent to manipulate markets for the benefit of themselves and some […]
The T Report: I’m Starting to Feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day
More Of the Same Spain is weaker again this morning. Stocks and bonds are both lower. Corporate credit is a touch wider with MAIN at 163.75 or almost 2 bps wider on the day. IG18 is opening at 109.5 or 1 basis point wider. German stocks are down, but nowhere near as much as Spain […]
The T Report: Lazy and Transitional (Both Me & the Market)
Lazy and Transitional Lazy and Transitional describes both me and the market. Today I will be extremely lazy and just resend what I sent out Monday. We are getting very close to my 1,385 “target”. The squeeze is running its course. Investors are still underinvested and I continue to see signs of strength in housing […]
LIBOR Liar, Pants on Fire. A Look at Barc, BAC, JPM, and Citi
July 2007 to January 2008 Stocks These are the stock prices, “normalized” to 100 in July 2007. In the August swoon, JPM and C did the worst. Barclay’s eventually caught up in later August, while BAC did well. We briefly rallied on a Fed Rate cut in October, but then the swoon returned with C […]
The T Report: Negative Yields. What They Mean and How to Trade Them.
Negative Yields So Germany issued some Bundesschatzanweisungen (affectionately known as “Schatz”) at a negative yield. So 2 year bonds, with no coupon, were issued above par creating a negative yield, and the demand was strong. What does this mean? Why lend money to Germany for 2 years and receive no interest and get let money […]
Barclays: Inept Manipulators and Inept Lawyers
During the Crisis, Barclay’s Submission Rarely Counted So I take a look at the period from September 1, 2008 until March 31, 2009 as being the height of the crisis. According to yesterday’s testimony, Del Missier claims that in November he was told to bring LIBOR down. This simple chart just looks at whether Barclay’s […]
LIBOR Litigation in 3 Easy Charts
LIBOR Manipulation in 3 Easy Charts I looked at the maximum possible influence 1 dealer could have on LIBOR on one day. I took the worst scenario. That is where a LIBOR that was excluded for being too high or too low, got “lied” all the way to be excluded for the other reason. From […]
Bankia and the Benefit of Bondholder Losses
Bankia’s Balance Sheet I’m not sure how much I trust any of the data on Bankia since I am always dubious of anything that was cobbled together in a state of panic, but let’s take a look at some of the numbers that are out there: Total Assets: €303 billion. Long Term Borrowings and Liabilities: […]
The T Report: Bears are Tired if not ready for Hibernation
The Only Thing Wrong with the Bear Argument is that it has been Wrong The bear argument is persuasive. It is well reasoned, makes sense, is supported by fact, yet it hasn’t been working. I was bearish early this year. Too early, but eventually the market did break down from 1,400. Near the end, many […]
