The “What if” Games Begin
What if Europe is actually really going to get aggressive? What if housing has bottomed and is starting to improve? What if the Q2 jobs data was affected by adjustments as much as Q1 and the economy wasn’t as bad as some feared? What if Chinese stimulus works? What if earnings […]
The T Report: Rock-a-bye Baby
Getting Lulled to Sleep After last week’s strong close the market has been able to creep higher. S&P futures actually hit a new high overnight, we are lower now, but that is worth watching. VIX is also at a multi-week low, and I’m told by some people much smarter than me, that the term structure […]
The T Report: Herding Cats and Credit Market “Weakness”
Herding Cats and Obstinate Politicians The mental image is so clear. Draghi, Hollande, and Obama, wiping the sweat from their brows with dust covered hands, having successfully corralled the Merkel. She’s still feisty and not happy about being in the pen, but they have managed it for now. Job well done, time for a well […]
The T Report: Vanishing Spanish Yields and Resistance
Mind Boggling Performance in Spanish and Italian Bonds Spanish 2 year yields are at 3.39%, or 50 bps better on the day. There is ZERO liquidity, but even then it is almost unbelievable that on July 24th, these bonds were yielding 6.77%. That is a massive change. It is completely dependent on Draghi supporting them. […]
The Weekend T Report: Brotes Verdes
Game Changer or Not? That is the question on everyone’s mind. Was this just another temporary measure in Europe that will fail sooner or later, and most likely sooner? Or is it something real. The start to a truly European Central Bank that can drive rates low as it chooses? Is the economic data here […]
2 Key Charts
Spanish and Italian 2 year yields responding to potential bailout? MCDX doesn’t seem particularly concerned about Muni market, albeit MCDX18 10 year isn’t quite as gentle, but no sign of imminent wave of 100s of billions of big defaults.
The T Report: Hope vs Expectation and NFP’s QE Impact
Positions Are Based on Expectations, Not Hope There was a lot of hope yesterday, including me, that Draghi would come up with a comprehensive plan. He didn’t. There were a lot of people positioned for disappointment, including me. Yes, I was still long, but had sold into it. I was very clear on that, and […]
The T Report: The ECB brought at Water Balloon to a Bazooka Fight
No Bazooka, Not Even a Water Balloon So the ECB delivered absolutely nothing. No follow up on last week’s speech. No new programs. No details. Basically nothing new was delivered. His press conference is at best confusing, and at worst has become defensive. He brought out the “don’t short the euro” statement. I liked when […]
The T Report: The Fed will Disappoint but it Won’t Matter
Hard to Believe but the Fed Just Isn’t A Big Deal Today The Fed is highly unlikely to take any action. The ECB has taken the spotlight. Either the ECB will act aggressively tomorrow and the Fed may be able to hold off on more stimulus here, or the ECB will fail, and the Fed […]
The T Report: All Hands on Deck or Abandon Ship for the EU
It’s Time For Europe to Stop Screwing Around Enough of summits, 30 page MOU’s, convoluted documents needing approval, “aid” in stages with so many strings attached that the next round is always in doubt. It’s time to act and get money out there and use the firewall. We have the Fed tomorrow, which while important, […]
