The Weekly T Report: PIIGS Bonds, HY Bonds, Bank Bonds, and Recoupling
Spanish, Italian, and Irish 4 year Bonds This Year Don’t Ignore the Irish Comeback This chart is important for a couple of reasons. The story in Ireland doesn’t get much attention, but what a comeback. The Irish 2016 bonds started the year yielding 7.5% and are now down to 4.43%. So while we are inundated […]
The T Report: Central Banks, Solvency, Liquidity, & Budget Deficits
Central Bankers and Budget Deficits Once again, the fate of the world or at least the markets rests on the shoulder of two men. Ben and Mario hold center stage over the next few days. I believe Ben will disappoint and rather than highlighting what can be done, will take this opportunity to preach on […]
The T Report: Bernanke to Preach not Print Tomorrow
From this morning e-mail I went full “bear” yesterday afternoon right after beige book. I remain that way and remain convinced that Bernanke will spend more time chastising politicians and downplaying monetary policy. I have been told by some smart people that I’m wrong – so I could well be. I’ve also been […]
EFSF 10 Year Bonds – Avg and Best Case
Total % of % of Commitment Total Yield Strongest Total Yield Federal Republic of Germany 211,046 29.1% 1.4% 211,046 48.0% 1.4% Republic of Finland 13,974 1.9% 1.8% 13,974 3.2% 1.8% Kingdom of the Netherlands 44,446 6.1% 1.8% 44,446 10.1% 1.8% Republic of Austria 21,639 3.0% 2.0% 21,639 4.9% 2.0% French […]
The T Report: Bulls vs Bears in Trench Warfare
The Market Has Devolved Into Trench Warfare Looking at the market of the past few weeks, it reminds me of trench warfare. A lot of boredom, followed by brief outbursts of carnage, and in the end, nothing changes. Since August 3rd, the S&P has been stuck between 1391 and 1418. In the meantime, volumes have […]
The T Report: IG at 85 or Apple at 600?
IG18 at 85 and Apple at 600 are Mutually Exclusive I remain confused at these levels. I continue to look at the various markets and come away without a strong opinion. Over the course of the year I have had strong opinions. They have worked out, though I got short too early and long too […]
The T Report: Look for Credit To Lead the Way
Stay Long Until IG18 Hits 95 I’m not sure what else to say. As I look through the various markets, I remain convinced that CDS is rich and will continue to get squeezed. That strength in credit will filter into other markets. I find it harder and harder to like U.S. stocks. I don’t believe […]
The Weekly T Report: Reading the Big Short Can Be Dangerous to Your Wealth
The Big Short – A Great Book, A Difficult Strategy I liked the book. It was a good read. It is also a compelling strategy. Find something that costs next to nothing to put on with huge potential gains. The big short was the ultimate elephant hunting or lottery ticket. The beauty of the big […]
The T Report: The Intellectual Dishonesty of Being Long Stocks
The Intellectual Dishonesty Being Long Stocks I have trouble making a strong case for stocks. I can find some very convincing reasons of why credit can perform well, especially CDS, but it is difficult to find many reasons to like stocks here, yet I do. Apple has its own special little place of pride as […]
The T Report: When Doves Cry
The Fed Doesn’t Speak it Bleats Yesterday’s minutes confirmed just how dovish this Fed is. While there was nothing really new in the minutes a few points were reinforce and worth repeating The Fed believes their policies help the economy. While many of us question their policy and its effectiveness for the economy, it seems […]
