The T Report: Mañana Mañana Mañana
Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing It feels so long ago that we woke up to so many stories about Europe pushing risk around (it was less than 2 weeks ago). Spain is allegedly in talks to get the bailout. ESM is on track to launch in October and Greece may get some government […]
The T Report: Price of Oranges in the USSR and Treasuries in the USA
Price of Oranges in the USSR and Treasuries in the US What was the price of oranges in the USSR? Whatever Stalin said. What is the price of treasuries in the US? Whatever Bernanke says. By and large we all accept that nothing in the Soviet Union was natural. It was all manipulated by the […]
Bond ETF’s – Don’t Ignore the Trees for the Forest of Bonds
Some Bond Specific Reasons to be Careful in HY ETF’s There are many parts of the HY market that will do well to just return coupon in the near term. I don’t want to pick on indices or ETF’s, but let’s do it. Let’s take a look at some of the top 10 holdings in […]
The T Report: What do you Buy for the Country that has Everything?
The Fed Wants to Know What You Buy for a Country that has Everything? We need an increase in real final demand. That is what will turn our economy around. Unfortunately, real final demand generation isn’t one of the tools in the Fed’s workbox. Asset buying is. That is all they really have left, next […]
Corporate Bonds, ETF’s, and Feedback Loops
The Feedback Loop Between Corporate Bonds and Their ETF’s This has been an occasional theme for us, but after some conversations last week, think it warrants a deeper look. The various parties interacting in the market have become more correlated and the relationships more intricate. The growing use of ETF’s by institutions is a key […]
The T Report: The Rule of 3
The Rule of 3 This is a simple little rule that could also be called the “by the time your mother knows it” rule. It certainly isn’t an exact science, but it seems to work. The premise is that by the time everyone “knows” something will happen, it doesn’t. That the first time something happens, […]
The Weekly T Report: Heart, Head, Gut
I had a strong, even visceral, reaction to the Fed’s announcement Thursday. I was wrong in that I thought they would back down with stocks at highs, housing showing some signs of stability, high gas prices, some real potential ECB intervention in Europe, etc. I was wrong. I was also wrong when I thought the […]
The T Report: The Carrot and The Carrot
Two Carrots Don’t Make a Stick I’ve always assumed the adage about a carrot and a stick had something to do with donkeys specifically, but was a great way of summarizing reward and punishment. The “carrot” was the reward. You dangle the carrot as a reward for good behavior. The stick was there to punish […]
The T Report: Black Swan Thursday
I just can’t talk about QE anymore. In a few hours we will know what we get and I don’t think anything is going to happen between now and then to change my view. My base case remains that the Fed delivers an incredibly dovish statement and may even introduce some “targeting” but will not […]
The T Report: Two Ships Passing in the Night
German Court Ruling Good For Europe Risk My Plausible Bear Path yesterday took a dent today with the German Federal Constitutional Court ruling. As in the e-mail that sent out in the immediate aftermath, this ruling was good. There were no real conditions. The condition is that to expand beyond the current €190 billion would […]
