The T Report: You Can Lead a Horse to Water, But Can’t Make it Drink
Spain Will Spain go through with the bank bailout? We Spain get OMT for the secondary market? Will ESM support Spanish new issuance? In all likelihood each of these programs will be initiated, but I see them as likely being ineffective. They will be ineffective because they won’t be implemented with vigor. They will be […]
The T Report: Writers Block – 2 Pages of It
Central Banks versus Rest of the World Day 1,038 What is there to write? The Fed has done its thing and the market is still trying to digest what QE means in the short term. The ECB has indicated what they would like to do, but so far has not actually done anything. Every day […]
The T Report: Portugal, Diffusion Indices, and QE
Portugal Portugal managed to exchange some bonds today. The government bought back some bonds due to mature in 2013 and exchanged them for bonds due to mature in 2015. This is interesting. I think it has helped risk in Europe as it is a sign that Portugal is not about to default any time soon […]
The T Report: The Fourth Quarter
A Confused Start to the Day, Month, Quarter S&P futures have already traded in an almost 1% range today. Weakness in Asia overnight, caused in part by weak data, was reversed on the European open, in part on weak data. You can’t make this stuff up, but the battle between weak data, mediocre earnings, downbeat […]
Spanish Bank Stress Tests
The Asset Quality Review and Bottom-Up Stress Test Exercise I’m sure its fairly standard, but in the preamble, the report says it relies on 3rd party reports, that haven’t been verified or audited. Probably just standard legal mumbo jumbo, but worth mentioning since it is certainly lower than the standard a private equity investor would […]
The T Report: Budgets and Bailouts
Spain is Fixed! Again! Maybe Rajoy announces a new Spanish budget. Rajoy asks the ECB to enact OMT. The IMF agrees that the new budget is enough and ensure that OMT is enacted and that ESM can buy new issues while they are at it. All is good, right? Not so fast. A couple of […]
The T Report: Run, Don’t Walk
Why Can’t We Have A Correction? The very fact that virtually everyone says we can’t have a correction probably means we can. I see complacency. The VIX is low and no one cares. Performance chasing is the latest excuse for analysis on why stocks HAVE to go up. People look at a treasury curve that […]
The T Report: From European Bull to Bear
Summer 2012 in Europe I have clearly had another change in sentiment on the outlook for assets in Europe. At the height of the crisis I was an unabashed bull. The timing of this Bloomberg TV interview couldn’t have been better, but in general the bull case was based on 3 things Not doing anything […]
The T Report: I Love It When a Plan Comes Together
Bearish Over the past week, I’ve collected my thoughts, looked at the world in a few different ways and am becoming more convinced that being short is the right trade, and for long only accounts, a time to reduce risk not add risk. There are lots of moving parts out there, but I think the […]
The Weekly T Report: Huey, Dewey, and QE
Huey, Dewey, and QE What do Donald Duck’s nephews have to do with QE? Nothing, but it is hard to find anything that rhymes with QE and doesn’t rely on quoting Hamlet. But the biggest question facing every investor is Can the market go down while the Fed is engaged in QE? That is the […]
