Net, Gross, Or GROSS
The magician has everyone talking about CDS. Having a Credit Event is a big deal, but I think the process will be manageable – just like Lehman CDS. I think the Net notional is all that really matters. What matters most is the GROSS notional of bonds. That is the big number as it is […]
What Next For CDS?
It looks the auction will be accelerated. I don’t think this has much impact as new bonds are trading WI close to old bonds. English law Greek bonds might become cheapest to deliver, but weird that the invitation date was extended past the auction date. I think CDS settlement will be smooth. What will be […]
ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred With Respect To Greece
ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred With Respect to Greece So we finally have the Credit Event. +——————————————————————————+ BN 03/09 19:45 ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred With Respect to Greece BFW 03/09 19:44 ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred With Respect to Greece BN 03/09 19:44 *ISDA SAYS CREDIT EVENT HAS OCCURRED […]
ISDA and CACs
ISDA seems to be having trouble confirming if CACs have been used or are still just a plan to be used. Until the CAC is used to “force” bond holders into the new deal there is no Credit Event. The headlines are a bit misleading on what has been executed or not. All kind of […]
Greek PSI Participation Rate Spin…
I’m already sick of the spin. The only number that matters is 100%. They didn’t get it. They will CAC (in fact they may already have done it). CDS will be triggered. This is the biggest sovereign default ever. Those who agreed either had no choice – banks and regulated entities – or saw no […]
NFP – What’s The “Whisper” Number?
Great weather and the seasonal adjustments should boost what could already be a decent number. There have been some indications that hiring has slowed down from January, but with this being a February number it might not reflect that. The market really feels like it has bet on a big number, so it may take […]
Greek Creditors Don’t Get The Courtesy Of A Reach-Around
Only in Greece, can you wipe out €100 billion of debt, and have the new debt that replaces it trade at 20% of face value. So 85.8% of Greek law bonds “participated”. The government intends to use the Collective Action Clause to force the holdouts to participate. It is unclear if the government has actually […]
(AP) Greece: High Participation In Bond Swap
So 86% participation in Greek bond laws. Plans to use CAC on Greek law bonds. Unclear if already using the CAC or not. ISDA meeting later. Won’t be a Credit Event until CAC is used. English law bond deadline extended. +——————————————————————————+ Greece: High Participation in Bond Swap 2012-03-09 06:25:50.198 GMT Athens, Greece (AP) — […]
The Law Of Large Numbers And EU Insanity
Rumors that PSI is above 90 % and that Greece won’t use CAC. With 207 billion Euro out of affected debt, even 10% is almost 21 billion. The PSI package seems worth somewhere between 20 and 25 cents on the dollar. So paying these holdouts at par as they come due, costs Greece about 1.5 […]
(BN) Papademos Says Expects Maximum Participation in Greek Debt Swap
I’m not sure why 100% isn’t maximum possible, but math and Greek politicians don’t seem to go well together. I expect a number between 75% and 98%. I expect every bank and most regulated entities to vote for it – how many Greek bonds are held by Europe’s bad banks and bailed out banks? My […]
