Fed Disappoints But JPM Buyback And Everyone
passing the stress test have caused another big spike. Definitely a positive signal out of JPM but as the best of the banks, will the others keep up? Group still trades like it is under-owned – today being no exception. And just yesterday everyone was worried about real estate and declining trading volumes. Definitely positive […]
No Real Promise Of QE, But They Are Clearly Trying
To keep the idea on the table. A brief mention of inflation – but this time it will decrease as oil and gas are temporary (or transitory). Not as hawkish as it could have been, and they do seem to insert enough negatives to keep QE on the table. Whether QE is still on the […]
A Complex Simplification of the CDS Market
CDS is once again (still) in the spotlight. We have moved on from debating whether or not a Credit Event has occurred in the Hellenic Republic, to concerns about whether the CDS market will settle without a problem. There is a lot of talk about “net” and “gross” notionals and counterparty risk. What I will […]
We Will Hit 84 Degrees In NYC Today, Seasonally Adjusted
There has been a lot of talk lately about “seasonal adjustments” and what they actually mean and do for the data. Reporting today’s forecast in “seasonally adjusted” terms would not be incorrect. The temperature today is almost 30 degrees higher than the average March temperature in NYC, so reporting it as 30 degrees higher than […]
CDS Disclosure
Stock analysts have to disclose whether they own a stock or not, whether they do invest banking for the company they talk about, etc. What would be really helpful if everyone who wrote or spoke about CDS could provide some basic disclosure: 1) I, or an employee I was responsible for, actually ever had […]
European Credit Closing Near The Wides Of The Day
Corporate credit was relatively stable, but bonds were lower pretty much across the board. Spanish 10 year yields broke 5% again. CDS underperformed even more, with 5 year Italy almost 15 bps wider. Focus is turning to Spain and Portugal. The question with Portugal is when they will want to get some debt forgiveness of […]
The ECB’s GGB’s
So the protected classes owned 56 billion of Greek debt. They allegedly plan on getting paid out at par – though maybe it will be at cost. They definitely concentrated their portfolio at the front end. Not only are they due to receive 4.7 billion euro on March 20th, but they are owed 15.9 billion […]
Slow Start To The Week As Market Digests Jobs, New Data
Weaker than expected trade data from China got the markets off to a slow start. Europe has been trying to bounce them up since then without much luck. The jobs data came in strong, but there seem to be enough questions about the quality of jobs, weather impact, and what had already been priced in, […]
CDS As Insurance Contracts?
This Washington Post article about CDS being an insurance product <http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/credit-default-swaps-are-insurance-products-its-time-we-regulated-them-as-such/2012/03/05/gIQAAUo83R_story.html> one very useful point was brought out. At the same time, there seems to be flaw in the argument and much of the argument is misdirected. Typically, an option or futures contract expires, and it either is in or out of the money. Any […]
(BN) Gilmore Says Anglo Irish Talks Ongoing; Accord Would Aid ‘Mood’
Just background noise, but more evidence of bail-out regret and failure. +——————————————————————————+ Gilmore Says Anglo Irish Talks Ongoing; Accord Would Aid ‘Mood’ 2012-03-11 13:26:21.986 GMT By Dara Doyle March 11 (Bloomberg) — Ireland’s Foreign Minister Eamon Gilmore said talks are ongoing on reducing the cost of the promissory notes used to rescue […]
