The T Report: ECB, SMP, ESM, and Fed
Stocks and stock futures are generally better today though the IBEX (Spain) has been a noticeable outlier. German confidence seems to have given a boost, but the German’s were just as confident last month and that wasn’t a good indicator of anything in the European economy. Ignore the confidence as just a sign that the […]
Homer Simpson’s Financial Markets and “Fixed Income” Products
Stop tomorrow’s problems today. Just this week we had: TVIX – an ETN that provides double the daily change in the vix futures. Who is smart enough to be able to take big bets on VIX futures that doesn’t have a futures account? Who is this designed for? MF Global & “customer money” – months […]
Very Early Afternoon T: Fed and ECB
Why is the market off the lows? The two answers that make the most sense are that rumors of the ECB buying Italian debt started and both Spanish and Italian bonds bounced hard off the lows to finish stronger (significantly stronger in the case of Spain). For now I will take late Friday trading with […]
TVIX and the VIX – Problem was Feb 21, not yesterday
So TVIX became the ETN story of the day yesterday, but the reality is it should have become “ETN” story of the day a on February 21st when Credit Suisse suspended the creation of more shares. Up until that day, TVIX tracked NAV closely. If it was trading too rich or too cheap, some investors […]
The T Report: What would be the catalyst?
Over the past few weeks, the market has fully bought into the notion that everything is contained. That the central banks have done enough to at least delay problems if not fix them. Much of that was based on moves in bond yields in Europe. It was circular that moves specifically designed to improve bond […]
Spanish Bond Yields – Who is a “natural” buyer of 10 year
Spanish 10 year bonds are above 5.5% now. They once again failed to hold early gains, and the losses seem to be accelerating. Once again, the back end of the curve is “flattening” with the 5 year 9 bps higher, while the 10 year is only 4 higher. The 2 year has barely budged, which […]
Afternoon T: Bulls in Ruby Red Slippers Clicking Their Heels
The market is struggling to shake off 3 days of mediocre US data, bad data out of Europe and China, and renewed signs that all LTRO did was temporarily suppress yields while fixing nothing. IG18 became the “clever” trade with bulls actually waiting for the roll to go long credit. The richness, and willingness to […]
The T Report: Ruby Red Slippers
For 2 days, the markets bought the dip in spite of negative economic data and signs that nothing has been fixed in Europe and that Spain could quickly become another problem. Right now a lot of bulls are clicking their heels together and hoping to get back to the highs. That is a very risky […]
Spanish Yield Curve – A loud whisper?
With ZIRP and LTRO it is hard to get a good read on the Spanish yield curve and what anything means. Spanish 10 year yields have risen 9 days in a row, 5 year yields have moved higher 8 out of 9 days, and the 2 year has been much more mixed, until recently. The […]
Spanish bond yields ready to breakout higher?
I don’t follow charts that much, but a lot of Chico’s chart based calls have been correct and this one is intriguing as he points out that the yields are potentially breaking out of a ceiling. A lot of people are wondering why Spain is suddenly a focus? It has been drifting for almost […]
