Go Long Europe, Short US?
The last time that I remember every single analyst talking about going long the US and short Europe was back in May 2010. I don’t know how to use Google Trends well enough, nor do I have access to a summary of all the research reports then and now to prove it, but that is […]
Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow
It may not be time for the Santa Clause rally but with the capitulation across so many asset classes today, it may be time to turn less bearish if not constructive. Some amount of excess risk and excess hopium has been squeezed out of the system over the past 3 days A quick hard move […]
(BN) Weidmann Says Loan to IMF Needs Non-Euro Nations to Join In
How can they host a summit, make a plan, and not have the biggest central bank on board? I’m not winning any awards for planning and organization, but this seems silly. They had a summit. One of the key elements of that was some new way for IMF to funnel money to Europe, and here, […]
Abysmal Liquidity And Other Things To Watch
Liquidity in credit is hitting an all time low, and is yet another warning sign of how fragile this market is. MAIN, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is being quoted with a bid/offer spread of 1.5 to 2 bps. Last week it was still being quoted in 1 bp markets, which although wider than […]
Globally Coordinated Nothing
I can’t get the Amy Winehouse No No No song out of my head. No ECB. No IMF. No Fed. No PSI. No balanced budgets. No QE. Pretty much everything the rally up to and following the summit was based on is falling apart. So far, No downgrades, but I suspect that is one of […]
(BN) *ITALY SAYS NEW 10-YR BENCHMARK BOND FOR SPREAD CALCULATION
Italy says they have discovered flaw with yield calculations. Going forward, all yields calculated on Italian bonds should be adjusted downwards by 50 bps, because it looks so much better. Greece got a lot worse shortly after their finance minister took the time to state that speculators would lose their shirts betting against Greece. This […]
It Is Very Hard To Tell What Is Moving Market
It is very hard to tell what is moving market, but if Fitch changing the outlook from positive to stable on Bulgaria, Czech, Lativa, and Lithuania can push us down 0.5% then if you are long, you need to be putting on some sort of a hedge. I’m not a big fan of puts, and maybe […]
(BN) *FILLON SAYS FRENCH DEFICIT WILL BE 4.5% IN 2012
So when exactly are they getting to the “balanced budget”? This is just a useful reminder how far away they are from delivering on the “compact” they cobbled together on Thursday. A 4.5% deficit in 2012 and 91 day bills issued by EFSF. Like every other summit, the follow up on the vague promises will […]
Greece – No PSI
As expected banks couldn’t agree to a haircut. Now Greece, the EU, the IMF, and taxpayers, will pay out about about $11 billion of principal and interest before the end of the year. I don’t know who holds the bonds maturing this year, but some of that money is probably finding its way into banks […]
EFSF Issues 91-Day Bills
The market popped after the EFSF announced completion of a sale of just under 2 billion euro of 91-day bills. The good news I guess is that it came at the ultra low yield of 0.22%. Why are they doing 91-day bills for EFSF? The point of EFSF is to address the liquidity part of […]
