Why Are Greek Credit Event Swaps Still In The Mid 60’S?
As we wait for more IIF announcements about the Greek Private Sector Involvement (PSI), Greek CDS remains bid above 60 points up front. For a contract that is about to be “worthless”, this seems to have a lot of value. Why would Greek CDS still be so well bid? One answer is stubbornness and stupidity. Maybe the CDS […]
LTRO Version 0.2
LTRO version 1.0 continues to capture the markets attention. It was a reason to rally, then fade, now back to an excuse to rally. My contention all along has been that LTRO was good for banks. It dramatically reduced the liquidity risk for banks. It did nothing for the solvency of banks or sovereigns, and […]
Greek Psi Here We Come? Be Careful What You Wish For
So it looks like we should get an announcement sometime today about the proposed Greek PSI deal. Yes, proposed, not finalized. Asides from the obvious fact that there will be limited or no documentation for the deal, we still have no clue who has agreed to what. As far as I can tell, no one […]
I’m In Denver And Can Feel The Squeeze From Here
Strong auctions helping. We forget March 2010 Greek auctions and August 2011 auctions. flippers and short covering or real change of risk tolerance? Greek PSI rumors helping. Watching the sausage being made might turn you off sausage for awhile. Financials and the bonds of financials are really strong. Europe in particular. Finally!! LTRO 1.0 should […]
Greek PSI
The Greek PSI is once again (still) hitting the headlines. Here is what I think the most likely scenario is (80% likelihood). Some form of an agreement will be announced. The IIF will announce that the “creditor committee has agreed in principle to a plan.” That plan will need to be “formalized” and final agreement […]
Daily Credit ETF and Index Summary (12.01.18) – Not So Strong So Far
As confusion still seems to reign supreme the markets swing from feeling well bid to well offered on next to nothing. Having said that, the universal opinion is that anything you are short is inexplicably strong, and anything you are long, is weak. Yesterday we were strong at the start of the day and the […]
(BN) IMF Said to Seek $1 Trillion Resource-Boost Amid Euro Crisis
This is starting to be more and more like a bad Austin Powers movie. Why should this group of unelected, many appointed based more on their political connections than their qualifications deserve so much money? This was a cute and slightly prestigious entity when it helped channel the charity of big rich nations into small […]
If You Are Not Confused…
Then you just aren’t trying hard enough! So the S&P took in weak bank earnings, improvement in China with hints of stimulus, downgrades in Europe, noise about how close or not Greece is to a negotiated default (I mean haircut), and finished the 2 US trading days a total of 2 points lower. We are […]
Daily Credit ETF and Index Summary (12.01.17) – Strong So Far
European corporate and financial CDS indices continued their gains. Italian bonds are up a little since the downgrade. Spanish bonds are also marginally better. The Portuguese 10-year bond hit a new low yesterday (in price terms), and although has bounced a bit today is still down 6 points from Friday and is trading at 50.5% […]
Ratings Actions Out
Not sure why they felt the need to wait until 430 since most of it was leaked already. Germany back to stable outlook is good. Austria and France change EFSF but guess that is what LTRO is for. Italy and Portugal would be in trouble in the real world but so long as ECB views […]
