That Is Some Serious Fracking Volatility
Natural Gas may well be the story of the year. The volatility has spiked to levels never seen before. The daily swings are large. UNG, the ETF is almost comical to watch. 5% moves are pretty standard. Not only does it have the volatility of the underlying commodity, it has to deal with rolling futures […]
The ECB’s Scary Carry Trade
According to the WSJ, the “ECB is willing to forego profits on their Greek bonds”. That statement strikes me as one of the scariest things that a central banker could say (and there is some tough competition for that one). Forego profits? Here is the chart of a typical Greek bond over the past 2 […]
It’s Raining Ben…
Of all the songs to get stuck in my head, that’s a painful one, but it sums up the market as well as anything else today. Ben remained as dovish as any bull could hope for. He spent more time downplaying the jobs data than I did. It is clear that he likes getting up […]
(BN) Greece Working on Final Draft for Leaders Meeting, Official Says
So, what are the steps here? Approve it. Handholding press conference. Lots of “defining moment” and “mission accomplished” speeches. Then what? Rumors that 20 billion or more of bonds won’t agree to the PSI (that is only 10%). Rioting in the streets? (those ungrateful people just don’t understand the need to sacrifice themselves for the […]
(BN) Greek PM Papademos Requests Default Report, Pasok Spokesman Says
So bonds having been trading below 50 percent of par and they have been negotiating for huge amounts of bailout money even longer and not once have they done a study of what default would mean? No actual work on what leaving the euro would do? The scary and sad thing is that I believe […]
JPM Buys Greece For $2
While we wait for the antics in Greece to result in some announcement, I can’t help but think about how different the Greek situation is from when JPM bought Bear Stearns (shortly after the last time the Giants won the super bowl). The “weekend” deadline for Bear was neither artificial, nor self-imposed. Without a deal, […]
Okay, So It Was Probably More Than Just The Weather…
But, SPX can’t even pick up a full 1% on it? Just how long is everyone? Ben must be scratching his head? How can he do his favourite thing (printing money and buying bonds from banks) when the data isn’t helping his cause and more and more people question whether ZIRP is beneficial to the […]
The Weather
This time last year the weather was an excuse for every piece of economic data that missed. I haven’t heard it mentioned this year, except in respect to hurting natural gas prices. Auto sales were great in January, but did the weather help? Seasonal adjustments are always tricky this time of year but with extreme […]
Deja View
It seems like last Friday we were waiting for details of the latest Greek plan – PSI and Troika. We are still waiting. Details are starting to come out. We should know what the bonds investors are expected to exchange into will look like. The ECB sounds like it may use the interest they have […]
No Shoes, No Shirt, And I Still Get Service
In the case of LMFAO I get it, they’re sexy and they know it, but what about Greece? Why is Greece still getting service? Is it like the homeless person who wanders into the nice restaurant and the owner of the establishment offers some coffee and desert to go, in the hopes that he will […]
