Is Reading “99” As “66” Dyslexic Or Just Wrong?
There is a story that the Greek government is aiming for a 66% participation rate. My sense was that Troika were saying 90% and thinking 99%. While 66% seems far more likely, I have no clue what it does for the deal. That seems like a massive failure to communicate. And why bother introducing retroactive […]
PSI Scenarios And Greek Bond Trading Thoughts
The ECB needs to convert its bonds so that they can be addressed separately. So far, there is no indication on Bloomberg, which gets its bond information from trustees, that this has been done. The outstanding amounts of existing GGB and Greece (Greek and English law bonds) hasn’t changed. Greece has to implement a retroactive […]
[VIDEO] The Ant & The Grasshopper (by Yanis Varoufakis)
Depressing to watch. In a special report commissioned by Channel 4 (UK), economist and former adviser to Yorgos Papandreu (and Truman Factor featured writer), Yanis Varoufakis provides an intimate look at the current crisis in Greece, while deconstructing some of its myths. Link: http://trumanfactor.com/2012/video-the-ant-the-grasshopper-by-yanis-varoufakis/
The Eurogroup Statement – Some Thoughts And Questions
It is hard to read the document without a sense that the Troika is no longer “helping” Greece, but running Greece. You think they would have chosen not to specifically use the phrase “permanent presence on the ground in Greece” given the connotation of “boots on the ground”. This could have been written without needing […]
Including Amortizations In The PSI Calc…
ZeroHedge had a Goldman Sachs report that shows the bonds paying 5% in principal each year starting in 2023. Using flat yield curves for now, that would add about 4-6 points of value on the long bonds, or about 1 – 1.5 points to the entire package. Will the EFSF bonds have a coupon, and […]
Greek PSI – A First Attempt At Valuing
So here is the first official statement I’ve seen on the PSI. For some reason, there is no real haircut on accrued interest. I took a look at all the GGB bonds (non-English law bonds). That is just under €240 billion in notional outstanding. Clearly some of this is held by the ECB. Using a […]
PSI Participation Rate
The PSI continues to be something worth watching, and the confusion around it frankly amazes me. We don’t know what the pool is, yet that is critical. Are the March 20th bonds in the pool or not? That is 7.25 billion swing in total debt, and timing of debt payment. The IMF is working under […]
(BN) IIF’s Dallara Says Greek Deal Is `Solid’ for Investors
At least he admits the bailout is for “investors” and not for Greece. Although the IMF report seems extremely optimistic, with a primary deficit of only 2.4 billion in 2011, and allegedly only 1 billion this year, really makes you wonder why not just be a lot tougher on bond holders? At the same time, […]
Just The Facts, Ma’am.
Well, we are finally getting close to getting some actual facts. The 9 page IMF report has been leaked. It doesn’t show much “sustainability” and that is without taking a closer look at the assumptions. That report talks about a 95% PSI participation rate on an “updated pool”. While we haven’t seen any details on […]
It’s 3am in Brussels, do you know where your Fin Min is?
If past performance is any indication of future returns, they are now desperately cobbling together something that sounds good, but has enough conditions and things to iron out, that they can have another summit next week. Shorting Belgium catering companies was a bad idea.
