Gold And LTRO

Late last summer and early fall, I remember that gold couldn’t lose.  No matter what happened in Europe, gold would do well. Either European QE was coming and gold would go up, or Europe would fall apart and gold would go up.  It didn’t.

More and more, I’m hearing similar stories about LTRO specifically, and the market in general.  Big LTRO take-up is good because carry trade.  Small LTRO take-up is good because banks in good shape.  Can’t lose.  Last time I remember a can’t lose trade it was gold back then.  Notice this time around, gold is almost 1,800 and the talk isn’t as bullish? That could be good for gold.  And I almost forgot, Apple can’t lose? hmmm…

Source: Bloomberg