Spain, A Slightly Bigger Kick
Yesterday, we took a quick look at Italian bond issuance since October of last year. Today it is Spain’s turn. I think they have actually done a better job. While the weighted average maturity of new Italian debt was only until August 2014, Spanish issuance has had an average weighted maturity of July 2015, almost a full year longer.
Only 49% of Spanish debt issued is covered by the LTRO maturity, that compares to 77% for Italy. Spain has even relied less on short dated financing with only 32% of their debt being 1 year or less, compared to Italy which had over 56% of its issuance in 1 year.
Generally I’m impressed that they haven’t catered their issuance to the LTRO program as much as Italy and have done a better job at issuing debt that doesn’t have to be rolled almost immediately.
The concern I have though, is that Spain has issued almost €100 billion of debt since November, compared to €156 billion by Italy. Italy’s total debt is €1.63 trillion (not including all the debt they have guaranteed), so Italy has issued less than 10% of their currently outstanding debt since November. Spain, with “only” €711 billion debt, has issued 14% of that total since November. Spain seems to have been issuing even more guarantees than Italy and to even worse institutions from a credit perspective (ie, ones that are more likely to rely on the guarantee for actual payment), so the trajectory of Spanish debt is concerning.
The maturity of the debt issued is better than Italy and better than I expected. The amount of debt issued and the fact that so many of the entities (regions, municipalities, caja’s) that Spain is indirectly supporting are in deep trouble, remains the main concern.
| Total < LTRO Maturity |
48.57% |
48,379,680,000 |
99,616,360,000 |
|
| Total < 1 year |
31.84% |
31,721,430,000 |
99,616,360,000 |
|
| Total 2015 and shorter |
61.91% |
61,671,680,000 |
99,616,360,000 |
|
| Total 0 Coupon |
40.80% |
40,640,460,000 |
99,616,360,000 |
|
Date Time |
Maturity |
Coupon |
Notional |
Yield |
| 10/06/2011 |
4/30/2014 |
3.40% |
2,398,300,000 |
3.30% |
| 10/06/2011 |
10/31/2014 |
3.30% |
980,690,000 |
1.29% |
| 10/06/2011 |
4/30/2015 |
3.00% |
1,120,100,000 |
5.23% |
| 10/18/2011 |
10/16/2012 |
0.00% |
3,560,500,000 |
0.40% |
| 10/18/2011 |
4/16/2013 |
0.00% |
1,041,500,000 |
2.44% |
| 10/20/2011 |
1/31/2017 |
3.80% |
1,082,400,000 |
0.38% |
| 10/20/2011 |
7/30/2019 |
4.60% |
1,035,800,000 |
1.85% |
| 10/20/2011 |
4/30/2021 |
5.50% |
1,787,600,000 |
0.78% |
| 10/25/2011 |
4/17/2012 |
0.00% |
2,094,600,000 |
0.84% |
| 11/03/2011 |
1/31/2014 |
4.25% |
1,562,200,000 |
3.61% |
| 11/03/2011 |
10/31/2016 |
4.25% |
2,928,000,000 |
5.02% |
| 11/15/2011 |
11/20/2012 |
0.00% |
2,600,100,000 |
4.05% |
| 11/15/2011 |
4/16/2013 |
0.00% |
557,930,000 |
2.05% |
| 11/17/2011 |
1/31/2022 |
5.85% |
3,562,600,000 |
1.90% |
| 11/22/2011 |
5/15/2012 |
0.00% |
965,930,000 |
1.42% |
| 12/01/2011 |
4/30/2015 |
3.00% |
1,200,000,000 |
5.16% |
| 12/01/2011 |
1/31/2016 |
3.15% |
1,150,000,000 |
3.80% |
| 12/01/2011 |
1/31/2017 |
3.80% |
1,400,000,000 |
2.40% |
| 12/13/2011 |
12/11/2012 |
0.00% |
3,443,000,000 |
4.23% |
| 12/13/2011 |
6/18/2013 |
0.00% |
1,498,100,000 |
1.71% |
| 12/15/2011 |
1/31/2016 |
3.15% |
2,451,200,000 |
2.31% |
| 12/15/2011 |
4/30/2020 |
4.00% |
2,176,800,000 |
4.27% |
| 12/15/2011 |
4/30/2021 |
5.50% |
1,400,000,000 |
2.07% |
| 12/20/2011 |
6/19/2012 |
0.00% |
1,922,200,000 |
3.59% |
| 01/12/2012 |
7/30/2015 |
4.00% |
4,271,800,000 |
3.50% |
| 01/12/2012 |
4/30/2016 |
3.25% |
2,503,200,000 |
2.44% |
| 01/12/2012 |
10/31/2016 |
4.25% |
3,211,200,000 |
2.97% |
| 01/17/2012 |
1/15/2013 |
0.00% |
3,007,100,000 |
3.64% |
| 01/17/2012 |
6/18/2013 |
0.00% |
1,873,100,000 |
5.19% |
| 01/19/2012 |
10/31/2016 |
4.25% |
1,300,000,000 |
2.62% |
| 01/19/2012 |
7/30/2019 |
4.60% |
2,300,400,000 |
2.86% |
| 01/19/2012 |
1/31/2022 |
5.85% |
3,009,000,000 |
3.33% |
| 01/24/2012 |
4/17/2012 |
0.00% |
1,400,000,000 |
3.38% |
| 01/24/2012 |
7/17/2012 |
0.00% |
1,106,800,000 |
4.02% |
| 02/02/2012 |
7/30/2015 |
4.00% |
2,522,400,000 |
5.28% |
| 02/02/2012 |
10/31/2016 |
4.25% |
983,900,000 |
3.37% |
| 02/02/2012 |
1/31/2017 |
3.80% |
1,053,900,000 |
3.75% |
| 02/14/2012 |
2/12/2013 |
0.00% |
2,943,200,000 |
3.38% |
| 02/14/2012 |
8/20/2013 |
0.00% |
2,502,500,000 |
3.46% |
| 02/16/2012 |
1/31/2015 |
4.40% |
733,430,000 |
3.91% |
| 02/16/2012 |
7/30/2015 |
4.00% |
2,267,700,000 |
4.02% |
| 02/16/2012 |
10/31/2019 |
4.30% |
1,072,600,000 |
4.85% |
| 02/21/2012 |
5/15/2012 |
0.00% |
1,736,400,000 |
3.57% |
| 02/21/2012 |
8/21/2012 |
0.00% |
764,000,000 |
4.78% |
| 03/01/2012 |
4/30/2014 |
3.40% |
1,061,000,000 |
5.54% |
| 03/01/2012 |
7/30/2015 |
4.00% |
1,910,000,000 |
4.19% |
| 03/01/2012 |
10/31/2016 |
4.25% |
1,530,400,000 |
4.54% |
| 03/15/2012 |
1/31/2015 |
4.40% |
1,003,600,000 |
5.11% |
| 03/15/2012 |
4/30/2016 |
3.25% |
976,180,000 |
4.83% |
| 03/15/2012 |
7/30/2018 |
4.10% |
1,029,500,000 |
5.24% |
| 03/20/2012 |
3/12/2013 |
0.00% |
3,598,200,000 |
5.43% |
| 03/20/2012 |
8/20/2013 |
0.00% |
1,445,900,000 |
5.55% |
| 03/27/2012 |
6/19/2012 |
0.00% |
1,499,400,000 |
5.40% |
| 03/27/2012 |
9/18/2012 |
0.00% |
1,080,000,000 |
6.98% |
@TFMkts