Seems a lot like July 2011 again, and watch out for Spain.

Spanish yields are back above Italian bond yields, like they were in July 2011.  For both countries, the yields are actually similar to where they were back then.

I think the fact that Italy is back to tighter than Spain is meaningful.  While Italy is a long way from being fixed, it is  clear that their former leader was not helping the situation,  and the political change was a big deal for Italy.  Nowhere close to being solved, but the improved political climate helped.  Spain is not going to be fixed by changes in government.  There are wide ranging problems that need to be  addressed, and the market is starting to focus.

Don’t forget LTRO has margin calls.                           

Also, the last time VIX was at 15, it was July of 2011, right before stocks had a nice sell off.  VIX had been at those levels for awhile before the sell-off began, but taking comfort in a low VIX makes little sense. It is more a sign of complacency, but is not really a leading indicator in either direction.